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An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation

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  • Paul Piveteau

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting—less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Piveteau, 2021. "An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 23-63, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:23-63
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190051
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2023. "Sequentially exporting products across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Hong, Shengjie & Su, Liangjun & Jiang, Tao, 2023. "Profile GMM estimation of panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 927-948.
    3. Vilhuber, Lars, 2023. "Reproducibility and transparency versus privacy and confidentiality: Reflections from a data editor," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2285-2294.
    4. Erhardt, Katharina & Gupta, Apoorva, 2024. "Go wide or go deep: Margins of new trade flows," DICE Discussion Papers 415, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    5. James Tybout & David Jinkins & Daniel Yi Xu & Jonathan Eaton, 2016. "Two-sided Search in International Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 973, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Davide Rigo, 2024. "The role of firm‐to‐firm relationships in exporter dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 569-587, April.
    7. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    8. Alessandria,George & Khan,Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian,Armen & Ruhl,KimJ. & Steinberg,Joseph B., 2021. "Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9741, The World Bank.
    9. Rigo, Davide, 2024. "The role of firm-to-firm relationships in exporter dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121135, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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