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Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade

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Listed:
  • George Alessandria
  • Shafaat Yar Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We study China’s export growth to the United States from 1950 to 2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China’s 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986–92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China’s WTO accession.

Suggested Citation

  • George Alessandria & Shafaat Yar Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2025. "Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(3), pages 713-749.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/733420
    DOI: 10.1086/733420
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