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Risk Premia and the Real Effects of Money

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  • Sebastian Di Tella

Abstract

This paper proposes a flexible-price theory of the role of money in an economy with incomplete idiosyncratic risk sharing. When the risk premium goes up, money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling, reducing investment. Investment is too high during booms when risk is low, and too low during slumps when risk is high. Monetary policy cannot correct this: money is superneutral and Ricardian equivalence holds. The optimal allocation requires the Friedman rule and a tax/subsidy on capital. The real effects of money survive even in the cashless limit.

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  • Sebastian Di Tella, 2020. "Risk Premia and the Real Effects of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 1995-2040, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:7:p:1995-2040
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20180203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Doubts or Variability?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 7, pages 217-256, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Dirk Niepelt, 2020. "Monetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics," Working Papers 20.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    3. Niepelt, Dirk, 2023. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," CEPR Discussion Papers 18444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    6. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    8. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Mao, Jie & Shen, Guanxiong & Yan, Jingzhou, 2023. "A continuous-time macro-finance model with Knightian uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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