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Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms

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  • Andreas Müller
  • Kjetil Storesletten
  • Fabrizio Zilibotti

Abstract

We construct a dynamic theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms with limited enforcement and moral hazard. A sovereign country in recession wishes to smooth consumption. It can also undertake costly reforms to speed up recovery. The sovereign can renege on contracts by suffering a stochastic cost. The constrained optimal allocation (COA) prescribes imperfect insurance with nonmonotonic dynamics for consumption and effort. The COA is decentralized by a competitive equilibrium with markets for renegotiable GDP-linked one-period debt. The equilibrium features debt overhang: reform effort decreases in a high debt range. We also consider environments with less complete markets.

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  • Andreas Müller & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2019. "Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4220-4259, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:12:p:4220-59
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161457
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    Cited by:

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    2. Philipp Renner & Karl Schmedders, 2020. "Discrete‐time dynamic principal–agent models: Contraction mapping theorem and computational treatment," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
    3. Galli, Carlo, 2021. "Self-fulfilling debt crises, fiscal policy and investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Ábrahám, Árpád & Brogueira de Sousa, João & Marimon, Ramon & Mayr, Lukas, 2023. "On the design of a European Unemployment Insurance System," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-Ins, or Bail-Outs?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 665-693, December.
    6. Vinci, Francesca & Schang, Christopher, 2024. "Marrying fiscal rules & investment: a central fiscal capacity for Europe," Working Paper Series 2962, European Central Bank.
    7. Flavia Corneli, 2024. "Sovereign debt maturity structure and its costs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 262-297, February.
    8. Clausen, Andrew & Strub, Carlo, 2020. "Reverse Calculus and nested optimization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Sandra Lizarazo, 2017. "Sovereign Risk Contagion," NBER Working Papers 24031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Shenzhe Jiang & Junjie Xia & Jiajun Xu & Jianye Yan, 2023. "A theory of National Development Bank: long-term investment and the agency problem," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 995-1024, October.
    12. Kai Arvai, 2021. "The Political Economy of Currency Unions," Working papers 850, Banque de France.
    13. Liu, Yan & Marimon, Ramon & Wicht, Adrien, 2023. "Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Árpád Ábrahám & João Brogueira de Sousa & Ramon Marimon & Lukas Mayr, 2022. "On the design of a european unemployment insurance system," Economics Working Papers 1826, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Fink, Fabian & Scholl, Almuth, 2016. "A quantitative model of sovereign debt, bailouts and conditionality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 176-190.
    16. Francesco Carli & Leonor Modesto, 2022. "Sovereign debt, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(6), pages 1386-1412, December.
    17. Matthew Greenblatt, 2020. "Bailouts, Inflation, and Risk-Sharing in Monetary Unions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 269-296, September.
    18. Dal Colle, Alessandra, 2018. "The mechanics of commercial banking liberalization and growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 194-203.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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