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The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging

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  • Louise Sheiner

Abstract

The aging of the US population undoubtedly will be associated with macroeconomic changes. In particular, some combination of lower consumption growth and increased labor input will ultimately be required. But, the timing of these changes can have important effects on variables like the rate of return to capital and wages. If the adjustment to consumption is slow, which would be the case if budget deficits were allowed to rise significantly as the population ages, then aging is likely to be associated with an increase in the return to capital and a reduction in wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Louise Sheiner, 2014. "The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 218-223, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:218-23
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.218
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 44521, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Axel B?rsch-Supan & Klaus H?rtl & Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 224-229, May.
    4. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 44521, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 44521, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Saleh Alarussi & Eng Zhi Yen, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growthin Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 33-53.
    2. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    3. Wang, Shaobin, 2020. "Spatial patterns and social-economic influential factors of population aging: A global assessment from 1990 to 2010," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    4. Docquier, Frédéric & Kone, Zovanga L. & Mattoo, Aaditya & Ozden, Caglar, 2019. "Labor market effects of demographic shifts and migration in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 297-324.
    5. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Yasutaka Ogawa & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Aging, Housing, and Macroeconomic Inefficiency," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Cristian Marian BARBU & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Sorinel CĂPUȘNEANU, 2018. "Study of population by domicile and residence. Natural movement and imbalances," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 25-38, Winter.
    8. Allen, Steven G., 2023. "Demand for older workers: What do we know? What do we need to learn?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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