IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aan/journl/v6y2024i2p109-119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and South African Commercial Bank Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Fabian Moodley

    (Department of Risk Management, North-West University, South Africa)

  • Babatunde Lawrence

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)

  • Surendran Pilla

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)

Abstract

Purpose: The study examined the short-run and long-run relationship between South African commercial bank performance and macroeconomic variables. Design/Methodology/Approach: Six South African commercial banks (ABSA, Standard bank, Nedbank, Capitec Bank, Investec Bank and FirstRand Bank), two macroeconomic variables (money supply and policy uncertainty) and two control variables (debt-to-equity ratio and the South African volatility index) were administered for the sample period, 2006-2022, using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Findings: The findings show that money supply and the debt-to-equity ratio has a positive long-run relationship with commercial bank performance. However, policy uncertainty and the South African volatility index has a negative long-run relationship with commercial bank performance. It is further evident that the error correction term exhibited negative and significant coefficients, which indicates a 76.08% imbalance between bank performance and independent variables. Practical Implications: Firstly, when the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) conducts policy adjustments, such policy changes should be in line with the findings of the study as it poses a significant effect on short-run and long-run commercial bank performance. Secondly, the Asset-Liability Committees (ALCO) of banks should consider the allocation of debt and the leverage position of their banks. That being, although debt increases bank performance, as found in the study, it also poses a significant effect on the liquidity position of banks. Hence, there should be added control of the banks’ liabilities as it will hamper the short-run and long-run performance of banks. Originality/Value: This study is the first to consider macroeconomic variables as a determinant of commercial bank performance in South Africa. Hence, the study provides insight into the relationship between macroeconomic variables and commercial bank performance. Moreover, the study focused on commercial banks that are part of emerging markets, where the performance of these banks differs from that of developed markets’ commercial banks. Lastly, the study considered the short-run/long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables and commercial bank performance, while the majority of studies consider current effects. Paper Type: Research Paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Moodley & Babatunde Lawrence & Surendran Pilla, 2024. "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and South African Commercial Bank Performance," Finance, Accounting and Business Analysis, University of National and World Economy, Institute for Economics and Politics, vol. 6(2), pages 109-119, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aan:journl:v:6:y:2024:i:2:p:109-119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unwe.bg/doi/FABA/2024.2/FABA.2024.2.02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    3. Eissa A. Al-Homaidi & Mosab I. Tabash & Najib H. S. Farhan & Faozi A. Almaqtari, 2018. "Bank-specific and macro-economic determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks: A panel data approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1548072-154, January.
    4. Ratnovski, Lev, 2013. "Liquidity and transparency in bank risk management," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 422-439.
    5. Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 48-63, March.
    6. Umer Iqbal & Christopher Gan & Muhammad Nadeem, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(10), pages 765-770, June.
    7. Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Michael D. Bordo, 2008. "An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 14569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Li, Xiang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Habib-ur Rahman & Muhammad Waqas Yousaf & Nageena Tabassum, 2020. "Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability: A Revisit of Pakistani Banking Sector under Dynamic Panel Data Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Zampara, K. & Giannopoulos, M. & Koufopoulos, D. N., 2017. "Macroeconomic and industry-specific determinants of Greek bank profitability," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 10(1), pages 13-22, March.
    12. Alexandra Horobet & Magdalena Radulescu & Lucian Belascu & Sandra Maria Dita, 2021. "Determinants of Bank Profitability in CEE Countries: Evidence from GMM Panel Data Estimates," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    14. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    15. Chen, Xiang & Lu, Ching-Cheng, 2021. "The impact of the macroeconomic factors in the bank efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese city banks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Andrew Maredza & Sylvanus Ikhide, 2013. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Efficiency and Productivity of the Banking System in South Africa," Working Papers 328, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    17. Peterson K. Ozili & Thankom G. Arun, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 803-830, August.
    18. Olalere Oluwaseyi Ebenezer & Wan Ahmad Wan Bin Omar & Syahida Kamil, 2017. "Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 25-38, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davis, E Philip & Ali Abdilahi, Ridwa, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Three Major African Counties: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 536, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Taslima Akther & Mushfiqur Rahman & Md. Mufidur Rahman, 2023. "Factors influencing commercial bank profitability in Bangladesh: a panel data approach," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Jamil Salem Al Zaidanin, 2020. "A Study on Financial Performance of the Jordanian Commercial Banks using the CAMEL Model and Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 111-130, October.
    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    5. Bongini, Paola & Cucinelli, Doriana & Battista, Maria Luisa Di & Nieri, Laura, 2019. "Profitability shocks and recovery in time of crisis evidence from European banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-239.
    6. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    7. Molyneux, Philip & Reghezza, Alessio & Xie, Ru, 2019. "Bank margins and profits in a world of negative rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Leandro Coghi Bernardelli & Carlos Enrique Carrasco-Gutierrez, 2024. "Macroeconomic, industry-specific and bank-specific determinants of the profitability of Brazilian banks: dynamic panel evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 693-726, August.
    9. Seyed Alireza Athari & Mahboubeh Bahreini, 2023. "The impact of external governance and regulatory settings on the profitability of Islamic banks: Evidence from Arab markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2124-2147, April.
    10. Huan Huu Nguyen & Thanh Phuc Nguyen & Anh Nguyen Tram Tran, 2022. "Impacts of monetary policy transmission on bank performance and risk in the Vietnamese market: Does the Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2094591-209, December.
    11. Aydemir, Resul & Ovenc, Gokhan, 2016. "Interest rates, the yield curve and bank profitability in an emerging market economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 670-682.
    12. Joaqui-Barandica, Orlando & Manotas-Duque, Diego F. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Commonality, macroeconomic factors and banking profitability," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.
    14. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking," Working Papers hal-03456106, HAL.
    15. Goodhope Hance Mkaro & Lin Sea Lau & Chee Keong Choong, 2023. "The determinants of banking sector performance in Tanzania: A pre-post Treasury Single Account analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2282812-228, October.
    16. Raftis, Achilleas & Karpetis, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2024. "Monetary winds of change: Exploring the link between policy shifts and bank profitability in developed and emerging European markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    17. Sanni Mubaraq & Salami Abdulai Agbaje & Uthman Ahmad Bukola, 2020. "Determinants of Bank Performance in Nigeria: Do they Behave Differently with Risk-Adjusted Returns?," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 1-34, September.
    18. Eissa A. Al-Homaidi & Najib H.S. Farhan & Waleed M. Alahdal & Amgad S.D. Khaled & Moatasem M. Qaid, 2021. "Factors affecting the profitability of Indian listed firms: a panel data approach," International Journal of Business Excellence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.
    19. Vijay Kumar & Sanjeev Acharya & Ly T. H. Ho, 2020. "Does Monetary Policy Influence the Profitability of Banks in New Zealand?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, June.
    20. Jelena Andrasic & Nada Milenkovic & Kristina Mijic & Vera Mirovic & Branimir Kalas, 2018. "The Impact of Acquisitions on Profitability: Evidence from the Banking Sector in Serbia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 83-99.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; banking sector; performance; commercial banks; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aan:journl:v:6:y:2024:i:2:p:109-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yanko Hristozov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ienwebg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.