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Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy

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Roberto Duncan

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Abstract

This paper contrasts the volatility of the main macroeconomic variables of a small open economy in two environments: an official dollarization (OD) scheme and a flexible exchange regime (FER). A simple DSGE model calibrated for the Chilean economy is used as a laboratory to study the implications of these regimes on the standard deviations of key variables. Welfare implications are also analyzed for a central bank that it is concerned with output and inflation volatility. Our findings show that OD results in: higher real volatility due to the absence of ountercyclical monetary policy; lower inflation volatility because of a less volatile foreign interest rate; and, from a welfare perspective, OD is dominated by a FER when the central bank weighs considerably the deviations of inflation and output from the steady state. Also, OD implies higher fiscal deficit volatility as a consequence of higher tax revenue volatility, and a higher reaction to terms-of-trade shocks.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 249.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:249

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  1. Bufman, G. & Leiderman, L., 1992. "Simulating an Optimizing Model of Currency Substitution," Papers 6-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  2. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," NBER Working Papers 8324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bastourre, Diego & Carrera, Jorge & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Dollarization and real volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0311, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Dollarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Raimundo Soto & Raphael Bergoeing, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 219, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roberto Chang, 2000. "Dollarization: a scorecard," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  9. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Rómulo A. Chumacero & J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2002. "On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 134, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Zeljko Bogetic, 2005. "Official Dollarization: Current Experiences and Issues, Cato Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 2000), 179-213," International Finance 0510006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Marcelo Ochoa & Patricio Valenzuela, 2004. "Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile," Macroeconomics 0407007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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