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Testing Real Business Cycles Models in an Emerging Economy

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Raphael Bergoeing
Raimundo Soto

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Abstract

RBC models have been successful when applied to developed economies: their abilities in replicating the data of emerging countries remain largely unexplored. The rapid but unstable growth process in developing countries and their relatively less developed market structure pose a formidable challenge to neoclassical general equilibrium models. Using data of the Chilean economy, we explore the effects of market rigidities and macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of consumption, investment, inflation and factor markets. We find that business cycles models replicate much of the observed fluctuations of real and monetary variables in the Chilean economy, despite its idiosyncratic economic structure. Using a calibrated model we find that technology shocks, fiscal policies and labor market rigidities are the main sources of economic cycles, while monetary policies and wage indexation play a minor role. Econometric tests support the use of our calibrated model as an adequate representation of the Chilean data.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 159.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:159

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Raphael Bergoeing & Juan Enrique Suárez, . "¿Qué debemos explicar?: Reportando las Fluctuaciones Agregadas de la Economía Chilena," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv112, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Edward C. Prescott, 1998. "Business cycle research: methods and problems," Working Papers 590, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
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  8. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "A progress report on business cycle models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  19. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 192, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283. [Downloadable!]
  4. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Crecimiento, empleo e impuestos al trabajo: Chile 1998-2001," Documentos de Trabajo 127, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Unemployment Insurance in Chile: Does it Stabilize the Business Cycle?," Documentos de Trabajo 302, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2004. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," Public Economics 0410001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2006. "Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 193-220. [Downloadable!]
  8. Acuña, Andrés, 2006. "Desempleo y Actividad Económica Regional: Un Enfoque Cíclico
    [Unemployment and Regional Economic Activity: A Cyclical Approach]    ," MPRA Paper 8275, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "Procyclical productivity : evidence from an emerging economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 109, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Norbert Fiess, 2004. "Chile's Fiscal Rule," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 348, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Facundo Piguillem, 2003. "Labor Market Distortions, Employment and Growth: The Recent Chilean Experience," Documentos de Trabajo 169, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Calani, Mauricio, 2007. "Testing Globalization-Disinflation Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 4787, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  13. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Hacia un sistema de seguro social eficaz en América Latina: la importancia de una política fiscal anticíclica," RES Working Papers 4334, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  15. Francisco A. Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2004. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of External Shocks and Policy Changes in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 271, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  16. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," RES Working Papers 4333, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 249, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  18. Raphael Bergoeing & Facundo Piguillem, 2003. "Innovaciones en productividad y dinámica de plantas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 3-32, December. [Downloadable!]
  19. Marcelo Ochoa & Patricio Valenzuela, 2004. "Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile," Macroeconomics 0407007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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