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On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth

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Author Info
Rómulo A. Chumacero
J. Rodrigo Fuentes

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Abstract

This paper presents several methodologies for understanding the Chilean growth process. By using univariate time series representations, we find that the Chilean data is more consistent with exogenous than with endogenous growth models. Growth accounting exercises show that the mild growth rates of the sixties are mainly due to the accumulation of human and physical capital, while the booms of the mid seventies and the one from 1985 until 1998 are mainly due to TFP growth. We also find that among the most important determinants of the evolution of TFP are the evolution of terms of trade, improvements on the quality of capital, and the presence of distortions. In fact, distortions do not only eliminate the positive effects of improvements on the quality of capital, but also precede the evolution of technology shocks and increase their volatility. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates the relative price of investment with respect to consumption goods, terms of tra de, and distortionary taxes is able to successfully replicate the impulse-response functions found on the data. This exercise suggests that distortions play a key role in explaining the growth dynamics of the Chilean experience.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 134.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:134

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  1. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2002. "Absolute Convergence, Period," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 218, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rómulo Chumacero, 2000. "Se Busca una Raíz Unitaria: Evidencia para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 86, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rómulo Chumacero, 2001. "Testing for unit roots using economics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 102, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 1987. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 192, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 2000. "Accounting for Growth," RCER Working Papers 475, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rodrigo Fuentes, 1995. "Openness and economic efficiency: evidence from the Chilean manufacturing industry," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 22(2 Year 19), pages 357-387, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile’s Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 365, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rodrigo Vergara & Rosario Rivero, 2006. "Productividad Sectorial en Chile: 1986-2001," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 143-168. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Roberto Álvarez & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2004. "Patterns of Specialization and Economic Growth in Chile by Sector," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 288, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Does Trade Increase Total Factor Productivity: Cointegration Evidence for Chile," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 115, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Iffat Ara, 2004. "Is Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector Competitive?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 685-706. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francisco Gallego & Norman Loayza, 2002. "The Golden Period for Growth in Chile: Explanations and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 146, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Rómulo A.Chumacero & J.Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Economic growth in Latin America: structural breaks or fundamentals," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 141-154, December. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 249, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Francisco Gallego, 2006. "Skill Premium in Chile: Studying the Skill Bias Technical Change Hypothesis in the South," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 363, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  15. Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Trade composition and total factor productivity: Evidence for Chile," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 116, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  16. Marcelo Ochoa & Patricio Valenzuela, 2004. "Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile," Macroeconomics 0407007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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