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Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'

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Enrique G. Mendoza

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Abstract

Financial contagion and Sudden Stops of capital inflows experienced in emerging-markets crises may originate in an explosive mix of lack of policy credibility and world capital market imperfections that afflict emerging economies with national currencies. Hence, this paper argues that abandoning national currencies to adopt a hard currency can significantly reduce the emerging countries' vulnerability to these crises. The credibility of their financial policies would be greatly enhanced by the implicit subordination to the policy-making institutions of the hard currency issuer. Their access to international capital markets would improve as the same expertise and information that global investors gather already to evaluate the monetary policy of the hard currency issuer would apply to emerging economies. Yet, adopting a hard currency does not eliminate business cycles, rule out all forms of financial crises, or solve severe fiscal problems that plague emerging economies, and it entails giving up seigniorage and potential benefits of conducting independent monetary policy. However, these disadvantages seem dwarfed by the urgent need to enable emerging countries to access global capital markets without exposing them to the risk of recurrent Sudden Stops.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8950.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8950

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paasche, Bernhard, 2001. "Credit constraints and international financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 623-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  17. David Parsley, 2002. "Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia," International Finance 0211003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies:The Role of Interest Rates," Working Papers 01-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," RES Working Papers 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises, Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-326 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Fabrizio Perri & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2009. "Choosing and assessing exchange rate regimes: A survey of the literature," MPRA Paper 16314, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabrizio Onida, 2004. "Crescita e vincolo esterno: quali strategie per promuovere stabilità macroeconomica, competitività e investimenti," CESPRI Working Papers 157, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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