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Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns

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Cited by:

  1. Breunig, Christoph & Huck, Steffen & Schmidt, Tobias & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "The Standard Portfolio Choice Problem in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 131(638), pages 2413-2446.
  2. Necker, Sarah & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2016. "Household risk taking after the financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-160.
  3. Dimitris Georgarakos & Roman Inderst, 2011. "Financial Advice and Stock Market Participation," BCL working papers 51, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  4. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
  5. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2013. "Asymmetric information and rationalizability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 789-804, November.
  6. Tilman H. Drerup & Matthias Wibral & Christian Zimpelmann, 2023. "Skewness expectations and portfolio choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 107-144, March.
  7. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  8. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
  11. Charles Bellemare & Sabine Kröger & Kouamé Marius Sossou, 2018. "Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 153-176, October.
  12. S. Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Working Paper CRENoS 200705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  13. Thomas Bridges & Frank Stafford, 2012. "At the Corner of Main and Wall Street: Family Pension Responses to Liquidity Change and Perceived Returns," Working Papers wp282, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  14. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
  15. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
  16. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
  18. Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2019. "Bundling, Belief Dispersion, and Mispricing in Financial Markets," Working Papers halshs-02183306, HAL.
  19. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 102767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
  21. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  22. Bernard, Sabine & Loos, Benjamin & Weber, Martin, 2021. "The disposition effect in boom and bust markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 305, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  23. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
  24. Luc Arrondel & André Masson, 2017. "Why does household demand for shares decline during the crisis? The French case," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 155-177.
  25. Bing Chen & Frank P. Stafford, 2016. "Stock Market Participation: Family Responses to Housing Consumption Commitments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 635-659, June.
  26. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading," Working Papers WR-938, RAND Corporation.
  27. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1423, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  28. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Higher-order beliefs among professional stock market forecasters: some first empirical tests," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-042, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  29. Bianchi, Milo & Jehiel, Philippe, 2015. "Financial reporting and market efficiency with extrapolative investors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 842-878.
  30. Briggs, Joseph & Cesarini, David & Lindqvist, Erik & Östling, Robert, 2021. "Windfall gains and stock market participation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 57-83.
  31. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ida Johnsson, 2020. "Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 428-442, April.
  32. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
  33. Luc Bissonnette & Arthur van Soest, 2012. "The future of retirement and the pension system: How the public’s expectations vary over time and across socio-economic groups," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, December.
  34. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd & Ulm, Eric R., 2017. "Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 430-448.
  35. Fezzi, Carlo & Menapace, Luisa & Raffaelli, Roberta, 2021. "Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  36. Shin, Michael, 2021. "Subjective expectations, experiences, and stock market participation: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 672-689.
  37. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
  38. Gerhard, Patrick & Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas, 2017. "Past performance framing and investors’ belief updating: Is seeing long-term returns always associated with smaller belief updates?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 38-51.
  39. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory I. Assumptions, Economic Space and Variables," MPRA Paper 93085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2008. "Trusting the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2557-2600, December.
  42. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  43. Marini, Annalisa, 2016. "Cultural Beliefs, Values and Economics: A Survey," MPRA Paper 69747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2012. "From the horse’s mouth: how do investor expectations of risk and return vary with economic conditions?," Working Paper Series WP-2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  45. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory III. Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 94053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
  47. Mayssun El-Attar & Markus Poschke, 2011. "Trust and the Choice Between Housing and Financial Assets: Evidence from Spanish Households," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 727-756.
  48. Adem Atmaz & Huseyin Gulen & Stefano Cassella & Fangcheng Ruan, 2024. "Contrarians, Extrapolators, and Stock Market Momentum and Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(9), pages 5949-5984, September.
  49. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  50. Miles Kimball, 2015. "Cognitive Economics," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 167-181, June.
  51. repec:mea:meawpa:14279 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Kogana, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessnerc, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  53. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2024. "House price expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 379-398.
  54. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Econophysics of Asset Price, Return and Multiple Expectations," MPRA Paper 91587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Bianchi, Milo & Jehiel, Philippe, 2020. "Bundlers' dilemmas in financial markets with sampling investors," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), May.
  56. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
  57. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  58. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
  59. Alycia Chin & Wändi Bruin, 2017. "Understanding the Formation of Consumers' Stock Market Expectations," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 200-210, March.
  60. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
  61. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 637, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  62. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay C. Lim, 2023. "Retail Investor Trading Intentions: New Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(327), pages 512-535, December.
  63. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  64. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  65. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay Lim, 2021. "Retail investor expectations and trading preferences," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  66. Arvid O. I. Hoffmann & Thomas Post & Tom Smith, 2017. "How return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 759-788, September.
  67. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
  69. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2014. "From the Horse's Mouth: Economic Conditions and Investor Expectations of Risk and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 845-866, April.
  70. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  71. Kogan, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessner, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  72. Brooke Helppie McFall & Amanda Sonnega & Robert J. Willis & Peter Hudomiet, 2015. "Occupations and Work Characteristics: Effects on Retirement Expectations and Timing," Working Papers wp331, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  73. Matthew E. Kahn, 2024. "Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 908-927, May.
  74. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  75. Haliassos, Michael & Reiter, Michael, 2005. "Trusting the stock market," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  76. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  77. Nikolaj Niebuhr Lambertsen, 2024. "Manipulation and obfuscation of financial reports," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1-2), pages 276-296, January.
  78. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  79. Luc Arrondel & Jérôme Coffinet, 2018. "Demand For Stocks in the Crisis: France 2004-2014," Working Papers halshs-01785324, HAL.
  80. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Financial Variables, Market Transactions, and Expectations as Functions of Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, November.
  81. Paiella, Monica, 2016. "Financial literacy and subjective expectations questions: A validation exercise," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 360-374.
  82. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon, 2013. "Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 19103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
  84. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
  85. repec:exc:wpaper:2013-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Bucciol, Alessandro & Miniaci, Raffaele & Pastorello, Sergio, 2017. "Return expectations and risk aversion heterogeneity in household portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 201-219.
  87. Afik, Zvika & Lahav, Yaron, 2015. "Thinking near and far: Modeling the formation of traders’ beliefs in asset markets using experimental data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 73-80.
  88. von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin & Wogrolly, Axel, 2022. "Heterogeneity in households’ stock market beliefs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 232-247.
  89. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  90. Michael Hurd & Maarten Van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2011. "Stock market expectations of Dutch households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 416-436, April.
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