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A Political Model of the Business Cycle

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Cited by:

  1. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
  2. Sanghack Lee & Kiwoong Cheong & Seoung Hwan Sub, 2007. "International Comparison of Economic Performance Index: The Case of the USA, Japan and Korea," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 51(1), pages 63-74, March.
  3. Cipullo, Davide & Reslow, André, 2022. "Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 307-340.
  4. Jacques DEFOURNY, 1979. "Des Cycles Économiques Aux Cycles Politiques," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 43-56, October.
  5. Henry Chappell & William Keech, 1985. "The political viability of rule-based monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 125-140, January.
  6. António Caleiro, 2004. "Economic Policies and Elections. A principal-agent point of view," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 20, pages 89-101, December.
  7. Manfred Gärtner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Monetary Policy Conduct and Central Bank Design," Springer Books, in: Readings in Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy, chapter 24, pages 423-446, Springer.
  8. Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2020. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 409-425, July.
  9. Daniel J. Richards, 1993. "What inflation policy do American voters want, and do they get it?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 33-44.
  10. Tansey, Michael & Raju, Sudhakar & Stellern, Michael, 2005. "Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1097-1109, December.
  11. Kim, Sangheon, 2008. "Does political intention affect tax evasion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 401-415.
  12. Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey & Mike Dempsey, 1998. "Share prices under Tory and Labour governments in the UK since 1945," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 389-400.
  13. Gartner, Manfred, 1996. "Political business cycles when real activity is persistent," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 679-692.
  14. Richard Schwindt & Aidan Vining & Steven Globerman, 2000. "Net loss: A cost-benefit analysis of the Canadian Pacific salmon fishery," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 23-45.
  15. Janet Pack, 1987. "The political policy cycle: Presidential effort vs. presidential control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 231-259, August.
  16. Imlak Shaikh, 2019. "The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, July.
  17. Hayo, Bernd & Neumeier, Florian, 2014. "Political leaders' socioeconomic background and fiscal performance in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 184-205.
  18. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
  19. Gary Zuk & Nancy R. Woodbury, 1986. "U.S. Defense Spending, Electoral Cycles, and Soviet-American Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 445-468, September.
  20. Cesar Alberto Campos Coelho, 2004. "Elections and Governments` Behaviour - An Application to Portuguese Municipalities," NIPE Working Papers 8/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  21. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
  22. Jochimsen, Beate & Nuscheler, Robert, 2005. "The Political Economy of the German Länder Deficits," Discussion Papers 2005/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  23. Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Rijsbergen, David R. & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle & Vrugt, Evert B., 2014. "Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-69.
  24. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Nuscheler, 2011. "The political economy of the German Lander deficits: weak governments meet strong finance ministers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2399-2415.
  25. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
  26. Michal Plaček & Milan Půček & František Ochrana & Milan Křápek & Lenka Matějová, 2016. "Political Business Cycle in the Czech Republic: Case of Municipalities," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 304-320.
  27. Ahmet Emrah Tayyar, 2017. "Political Monetary Cycles In Coalition And Single Party Government Periods: A Case Study On Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 89-111, December.
  28. Shaikh, Imlak, 2017. "The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock, FX and VIX markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 546-563.
  29. Manfred Gärtner, 2002. "Monetary policy and central bank behaviour," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-24, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  30. Ramser, Hans Jürgen, 1977. "Anmerkungen zur Theorie politischer Konjunkturzyklen," Discussion Papers, Series I 105, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
  31. Roger Congleton & Yongjing Zhang, 2013. "Is it all about competence? The human capital of U.S. presidents and economic performance," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 108-124, June.
  32. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  33. Janet Pack, 1988. "The Congress and fiscal policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 101-122, August.
  34. Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder & A. K. M. Nurul Hossain & Monir Uddin Ahmed, 2016. "Does the central bank contribute to the political monetary cycles in Bangladesh?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 365-394, November.
  35. Hahn, Volker, 2016. "Designing monetary policy committees," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 47-67.
  36. van der Ploeg, F., 1989. "Two essays on political economy," Other publications TiSEM 4256c7b5-8422-47b0-be5b-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  37. Sasakura, Kazuyuki, 1995. "Political economic chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 213-221, July.
  38. F. Ploeg, 1989. "Disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 211-239, March.
  39. Damir Piplica & Ivo Speranda, 2015. "Unemployment and investments in various political environments of The transition countries EU members," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 11(1), pages 23-37.
  40. Dennis Mueller, 2007. "Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini, The Economic Effects of Constitutions," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-68, March.
  41. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & William Roberts Clark, 2002. "Political Business Cycles in EU Accession Countries," European Union Politics, , vol. 3(2), pages 231-250, June.
  42. Florian Dorn, 2021. "Elections and Government Efficiency," ifo Working Paper Series 363, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  43. Leverty, J. Tyler & Grace, Martin F., 2018. "Do elections delay regulatory action?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 409-427.
  44. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
  45. Qiu, Leiju & Li, Tianyu & He, Qing & Zhao, Daxuan, 2021. "Policy uncertainty and overseas property purchases: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  46. John Mikesell, 1978. "Election periods and state tax policy cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 99-106, January.
  47. Robert Michaels, 1986. "Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 113-124, January.
  48. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:5:p:527-61 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Yang Shen & Jing Wu & Shuping Wu, 2022. "City‐chief turnover and place‐based policy change: Evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1296-1328, November.
  50. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  51. Walker A. Pollard, 1983. "Presidential Elections: Cyclical and Distributional Economic Effects," Public Finance Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 217-236, April.
  52. Çağrı Levent Uslu, 2017. "Seat-vote elasticity and the provincial distribution of government spending in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 49-67, April.
  53. Peter Bloch, 1986. "The politico-economic behavior of authoritarian governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 117-128, January.
  54. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
  55. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  56. Jeffrey S. Zax, 1986. "Trends and Deviations in Federal, State and Local Finance," NBER Working Papers 2063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Michael Toma & Richard Cebula, 2001. "Politicians, deficits, and monetary policy in the U.S. revisited," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 419-430, November.
  58. Caleiro, António, 2007. "What Does Economics Assume About People’s Knowledge? Who knows?," EconStor Preprints 142776, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  59. Rui Nuno Baleiras & Vasco Santos, 2003. "On the Likelihood and Welfare Effects of “Stop–and–go” Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 121-133, January.
  60. Lobo, Bento J. & Tufte, David, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility: Does Politics Matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 351-365, April.
  61. Ryan Amacher & William Boyes, 1982. "Unemployment rates and political outcomes: An incentive for manufacturing a political business cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 197-203, January.
  62. Jean-Dominique Lafay & Friedrich Schneider & Werner Pommerehne, 1981. "Les interactions entre économie et politique : synthèse des analyses théoriques et empiriques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(1), pages 110-162.
  63. Beja, Edsel, 2014. "Measuring economic ill-being: Evidence for the ‘Philippine Misery Index’," MPRA Paper 59772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Manuela Krause, 2019. "Communal fees and election cycles: Evidence from German municipalities," ifo Working Paper Series 293, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  65. Thomas L. Hogan, 2022. "The calculus of dissent: Bias and diversity in FOMC projections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 105-135, April.
  66. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
  67. Lobo, Bento J., 1999. "Jump risk in the U.S. stock market: Evidence using political information," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-163.
  68. Jon Faust & John S. Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  69. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
  70. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
  71. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
  72. William Mitchell, 1988. "Virginia, Rochester, and Bloomington: Twenty-five years of public choice and political science," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 101-119, February.
  73. Martin Paldam, 1981. "An essay on the rationality of economic policy: The test-case of the electional cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-305, January.
  74. Christopher J. Ellis & Mark A. Thoma, 1991. "Causality In Political Business Cycles," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(2), pages 39-49, April.
  75. Geys, Benny & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune J., 2017. "Are bureaucrats paid like CEOs? Performance compensation and turnover of top civil servants," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 47-54.
  76. Cusack, Thomas R., 1987. "Public expenditure decision making: A comparative analysis," Discussion Papers, various Research Units FGG dp 87-1, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  77. David J. Smyth & Susan W. Taylor, 1991. "Regional Variations In The Social Preference Function Between Inflation And Unemployment," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-10, Spring.
  78. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Fernando Sánchez López, 2022. "Measuring the Effect of the Misery Index on International Tourist Departures: Empirical Evidence from Mexico," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
  80. Jan Janků, 2016. "Podmíněný politicko-rozpočtový cyklus v zemích OECD [Conditional Political Budget Cycle in the OECD Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 65-82.
  81. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
  82. Frey, Bruno S. & Kirchgäßner, Gebhard, 1977. "A basic dilemma in democracy," Discussion Papers, Series I 95, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
  83. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.
  84. Jae Young Jang & Min Jae Park, 2019. "A Study on Global Investors’ Criteria for Investment in the Local Currency Bond Markets Using AHP Methods: The Case of the Republic of Korea," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, October.
  85. Chien-Liang Chiu & Chun-Da Chen & Wan-Wei Tang, 2005. "Political elections and foreign investor trading in South Korea's financial markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 673-677.
  86. von Hagen, Jürgen, 1998. "Budgeting institutions for aggregate fiscal discipline," ZEI Working Papers B 01-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  87. Omar Alejandro Pérez-Cruz & Edgar Alfredo Nande-Vázquez & Juan Carlos Martínez-Verdugo, 2021. "Public Expenditure Management and Political Budget Cycles: The Case of Colima City Council 2009-2018," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(4), pages 1-40, April.
  88. Pierre Cahuc, 1989. "Modes de formation des salaires et stagflation : une analyse en termes de théorie des jeux," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(3), pages 421-440.
  89. Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
  90. Ulrich Lächler, 1984. "The political business cycle under rational voting behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 411-430, January.
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