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Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Brett Green & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2018. "The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5315-5348, November.
  2. Sultan Mehmood & Bakhtawar Ali, 2024. "Judicial Capture," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(659), pages 1287-1301.
  3. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2020. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8168, CESifo.
  4. Chen, Daniel L. & Philippe, Arnaud, 2023. "Clash of norms judicial leniency on defendant birthdays," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 324-344.
  5. Sultan Mehmood & Avner Seror & Daniel L. Chen, 2022. "Religious Rituals: Evidence from Ramadan," Working Papers hal-03899724, HAL.
  6. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  7. Emil Persson & Kinga Barrafrem & Andreas Meunier & Gustav Tinghög, 2019. "The effect of decision fatigue on surgeons' clinical decision making," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(10), pages 1194-1203, October.
  8. Chen, Daniel L. & Reinhart, Eric, 2016. "The Disavowal of Decisionism: Politically Motivated Exits from the U.S. Courts of Appeals," TSE Working Papers 16-721, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2017.
  9. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2020. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 045, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  10. Chen, Daniel L. & Philippe, Arnaud, 2018. "Clash of norms: Judicial leniency on defendant birthdays," IAST Working Papers 18-76, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
  11. Deshpande Sameer K. & Wyner Abraham, 2017. "A hierarchical Bayesian model of pitch framing," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 95-112, September.
  12. Jonas Hjort & Diana Moreira & Gautam Rao & Juan Francisco Santini, 2021. "How Research Affects Policy: Experimental Evidence from 2,150 Brazilian Municipalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1442-1480, May.
  13. Chen, Daniel L., 2023. "Judicial compliance in district courts," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  14. Jon Kleinberg & Annie Liang & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2017. "The Theory is Predictive, but is it Complete? An Application to Human Perception of Randomness," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Aug 2017.
  15. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2019. "Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1971-2017.
  16. Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2024. "The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 283-321, April.
  17. Chen, Daniel L. & Dunn, Matt & Sagun, Levent & Sirin, Hale, 2017. "Early Predictability of Asylum Court Decisions," TSE Working Papers 17-781, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  18. Chen, Daniel L. & Prescott, J.J., 2016. "Implicit Egoism in Sentencing Decisions: First Letter Name Effects with Randomly Assigned Defendants," IAST Working Papers 16-56, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
  19. Artiga González, Tanja & Calluzzo, Paul & Granic, Georg D., 2023. "Ballot order effects in independent director elections," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  20. Richard Craven, 2023. "Managing dissonance: Bureaucratic justice and public procurement," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 215-233, January.
  21. Yulin Liu & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach," Papers 2201.12893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
  22. Shroff, Ravi & Vamvourellis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Pretrial release judgments and decision fatigue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  23. Nicolas Lampach & Arthur Dyevre, 2020. "Choosing for Europe: judicial incentives and legal integration in the European Union," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 65-86, August.
  24. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2023. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 818-832, July.
  25. Carlos Berdejó & Daniel L. Chen, 2017. "Electoral Cycles among US Courts of Appeals Judges," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 479-496.
  26. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2022. "Simultaneous Decision Making of Juries: Evidence From the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers hal-04104190, HAL.
  27. Ibrahim Filiz & Thomas Nahmer & Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding, status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 167-205, May.
  28. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Qingxia Kong & Georg D. Granic & Nicolas S. Lambert & Chung Piaw Teo, 2020. "Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 844-862, February.
  30. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
  31. Kovic, Marko & Kristiansen, Silje, 2016. "The gambler's fallacy fallacy (fallacy)," SocArXiv xdsxg, Center for Open Science.
  32. Peter Slade & Tor Tolhurst, 2019. "Job Security and Risk‐Taking: Theory and Evidence From Professional Football," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 899-918, January.
  33. Alejandro Núnez Arroyo, 2018. "Information seeking with selective memory," Documentos CEDE 17131, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  34. Archsmith, James & Heyes, Anthony & Neidell, Matthew & Sampat, Bhaven, 2021. "The Dynamics of Inattention in the (Baseball) Field," IZA Discussion Papers 14440, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  35. Robert M. Lantis & Erik T. Nesson, 2019. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the ‘Hot Hand’ in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," NBER Working Papers 26510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Rogger, Daniel & Somani, Ravi, 2023. "Hierarchy and Information," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
  37. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  38. Chen, Daniel L., 2018. "Machine Learning and the Rule of Law," TSE Working Papers 18-975, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  39. Elhorst, Paul & Faems, Dries, 2021. "Evaluating proposals in innovation contests: Exploring negative scoring spillovers in the absence of a strict evaluation sequence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
  40. James Wang, 2020. "Screening soft information: evidence from loan officers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 1287-1322, December.
  41. Christoph Engel, 2022. "Judicial Decision-Making. A Survey of the Experimental Evidence," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2022_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  42. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
  43. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Pradier, Lionnel & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2023. "Biased risk perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  44. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  45. Reio Tanji, 2022. "Pitch Call Discrimination in Major League Baseball: The Effect on the Observed Performance and the Salaries," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 22-02, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  46. Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2021. "Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 71-96, Fall.
  47. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  48. Mehmood, Sultan & Seror, Avner & Chen, Daniel L., 2022. "Ramadan Fasting Increases Judicial Leniency in Judges from Pakistan and India," TSE Working Papers 22-1393, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Mar 2023.
  49. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
  50. Philippe, Arnaud, 2017. "Does introducing lay people in criminal courts affect judicial decisions? Evidence from French reform," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-15.
  51. Gregory DeAngelo & Bryan C. McCannon, 2022. "Behavioral economics and public choice: introduction to a special issue," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(3), pages 285-292, June.
  52. Maria R. Ibanez & Michael W. Toffel, 2020. "How Scheduling Can Bias Quality Assessment: Evidence from Food-Safety Inspections," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2396-2416, June.
  53. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2024. "Does Exposure to Concurrent Cases Affect Judicial Decisions? Evidence from the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers 2024-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  54. Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2021. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 639-677, August.
  55. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1176-1207 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Chen, Daniel L. & Loecher, Markus, 2016. "Mood and the Malleability of Moral Reasoning: The Impact of Irrelevant Factors on Judicial Decisions," IAST Working Papers 16-49, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST), revised Sep 2019.
  57. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Chen, Daniel L., 2016. "Mood and the Malleability of Moral Reasoning," TSE Working Papers 16-707, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2017.
  59. Cueva, Carlos, 2020. "Animal Spirits in the Beautiful Game. Testing social pressure in professional football during the COVID-19 lockdown," OSF Preprints hczkj, Center for Open Science.
  60. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  61. Eric Fesselmeyer, 2021. "The impact of temperature on labor quality: Umpire accuracy in Major League Baseball," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 545-567, October.
  62. Oliphant, Wesley & Ma, Hong, 2021. "Applying Behavioral Economics to microcredit in China’s rural areas," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  63. Chen, Daniel L. & Halberstam, Yosh & Yu, Alan, 2016. "Covering: Mutable Characteristics and Perceptions of Voice in the U.S. Supreme Court," TSE Working Papers 16-680, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2020.
  64. Philippe, Arnaud, 2017. "Do jurors and professional judges differ in their treatment of crime?: Evidence from French reform," TSE Working Papers 17-763, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  65. Drew Fudenberg & Jon Kleinberg & Annie Liang & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2019. "Measuring the Completeness of Theories," Papers 1910.07022, arXiv.org.
  66. Doidge, Mary & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., 2017. "A test of the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies in farmers’ weather and market predictions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  67. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1176-1207 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Katja Bergonzoli & Laurent Bieri & Dominic Rohner & Christian Zehnder, 2024. "Hungry Professors? Decision Biases Are Less Widespread than Previously Thought," Papers 2408.06048, arXiv.org.
  69. Benjamin Radoc, 2020. "Bandit with similarity information," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202002, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.
  70. Elliott Ash & Michael Poyker, 2024. "Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to the Fox News Channel," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1331-1355.
  71. Maximilian Späth & Daniel Goller, 2023. "Gender differences in investment reactions to irrelevant information," CEPA Discussion Papers 67, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
  72. Shrestha, Maheshwor, 2019. "Death scares: How potential work-migrants infer mortality rates from migrant deaths," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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