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Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389.
  2. Han-Liang Cheng & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2021. "A study of financial cycles and the macroeconomy in Taiwan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1749-1778, October.
  3. , L., 2013. "Fragility of reputation and clustering of risk-taking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
  4. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  5. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
  6. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
  7. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
  9. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
  10. Yao, Fang, 2022. "Estimating the Trend of the House Price to Income Ratio in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
  11. Cipollini, Andrea & Missaglia, Giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Peter Fuleky & Carl Bonham, 2010. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 2010-17R1, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, revised Jul 2013.
  13. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
  14. Ptak-Chmielewska Aneta & Matuszyk Anna, 2019. "Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(3), pages 40-49, September.
  15. Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
  16. Harada, Nobuyuki & Kageyama, Noriyuki, 2011. "Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 119-128, March.
  17. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
  18. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  19. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
  20. Susan K. Schroeder, 2008. "The Underpinnings Of Country Risk Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 498-535, July.
  21. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Hany, Jie, 2010. "Financial Distress in Chinese Industry: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic and Institutional Infuences," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  22. Peter Fuleky & Carl, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 2013-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  23. Guler Aras & Lale Aslan, 2011. "Capital structure and credit risk management: evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20.
  24. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
  25. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
  26. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
  27. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
  28. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  29. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
  30. Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
  31. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87.
  32. Kévin Beaubrun-Diant & Fabien Tripier, 2009. "The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Friction," Working Papers hal-00430809, HAL.
  33. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
  34. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  35. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  36. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  37. Lu, Yang-Cheng & Shen, Chung-Hua & Wei, Yu-Chen, 2013. "Revisiting early warning signals of corporate credit default using linguistic analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-21.
  38. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
  39. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
  40. Kuang-Hua Hu & Shih-Kuei Lin & Yung-Kang Ching & Ming-Chin Hung, 2021. "Goodness-of-Fit of Logistic Regression of the Default Rate on GDP Growth Rate and on CDX Indices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-14, August.
  41. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
  42. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  43. Jaehoon Hahn & Ho-Seong Moon, 2016. "Credit Cycle and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence from Korea," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 22(4), pages 76-108, December.
  44. Gatfaoui Hayette, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton’s Credit Risk Valuation," Finance 0404004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Rhee, Yuna & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2016. "Business cycle and credit risk modeling with jump risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 15-36.
  46. Rebekka Topp & Robert Perl, 2010. "Through‐the‐Cycle Ratings Versus Point‐in‐Time Ratings and Implications of the Mapping Between Both Rating Types," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 47-61, February.
  47. N. Dewaelheyns & C. van Hulle, 2007. "Aggregate Bankruptcy Rates and the Macroeconomic Environment. Forecasting Systematic Probabilities of Default," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(4), pages 541-566.
  48. Myriam Ben Ayed & Adel Karaa & Jean‐Luc Prigent, 2018. "Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1870-1886, July.
  49. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, March.
  50. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
  51. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
  52. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  53. De Santis, Roberto A., 2018. "Unobservable country bond premia and fragmentation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-25.
  54. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Errico, Lucia & Rondinella, Sandro & Trivieri, Francesco, 2023. "Enduring lending relationships and european firms default," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 459-477.
  55. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November.
  56. Andrew E. Evans, 2020. "Average labour productivity dynamics over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1833-1863, October.
  57. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September.
  58. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
  59. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
  60. Ugur, Mehmet & Solomon, Edna & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2022. "Leverage, competition and financial distress hazard: Implications for capital structure in the presence of agency costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  61. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 857-861.
  62. Xing, Kai & Luo, Dan & Liu, Lanlan, 2023. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate default, and default clustering," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  63. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
  64. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
  65. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
  66. Wagner, Stephan M. & Mizgier, Kamil J. & Papageorgiou, Stylianos, 2017. "Operational disruptions and business cycles," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 66-78.
  67. Alejandro Ferrer Pérez & José Casals Carro & Sonia Sotoca López, 2014. "Linking the problems of estimating and allocating unconditional capital," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  68. Jian He & Asma Khedher & Peter Spreij, 2024. "Calibration of the rating transition model for high and low default portfolios," Papers 2405.00576, arXiv.org.
  69. Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Marente Vlekke, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles with a model-based filter: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," DNB Working Papers 495, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  70. Malgorzata Porada - Rochon, 2020. "The Length of Financial Cycle and its Impact on Business Cycle in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1278-1290.
  71. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.
  72. Patrik Kupkovic & Martin Suster, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Cycle in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  73. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
  74. Strickland, Chris M. & Turner, Ian. W. & Denham, Robert & Mengersen, Kerrie L., 2009. "Efficient Bayesian estimation of multivariate state space models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4116-4125, October.
  75. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Penelope Smith, 2008. "A Bayesian Simulation Approach to Inference on a Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  76. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
  77. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. Anisa Caja & Frédéric Planchet, 2014. "Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
  79. Odermann, Alexander & Cremers, Heinz, 2013. "Komponenten und Determinanten des Credit Spreads: Empirische Untersuchung während Phasen von Marktstress," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 204, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  80. Zhao, Weijia & Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Wu, Ji (George) & He, Feng, 2022. "Couple-based leadership and default risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 439-463.
  81. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Model-based indicators for the identification of cyclical systemic risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3179-3211, December.
  82. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.
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