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Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options: A New Approach

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Ferland, Rene & Lalancette, Simon, 2006. "Dynamics of realized volatilities and correlations: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2109-2130, July.
  2. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  3. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
  4. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility Structure of an Arbitrage-Free Interest Rate Model Via the Futures Markets," Finance 0409003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  6. Marek Rutkowski, 1999. "Models of forward Libor and swap rates," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 29-60.
  7. Menkveld, Albert J. & Cheung, Yiu Chung & de Jong, Frank, 2004. "Euro area sovereign yield dynamics: the role of order imbalance," Working Paper Series 385, European Central Bank.
  8. Miguel A. Ferreira, 2005. "Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models Within a Value-at-Risk Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 126-168.
  9. Joshua Rosenberg, 1999. "Option-Based Tests of Interest Rate Diffusion Functions," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-026, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  10. Kazuhiko NISHINA & Tatsuro Nabil MAGHREBI & Moo-Sung KIM, 2006. "Stock Market Volatility And The Forecasting Accuracy Of Implied Volatility Indices," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  11. Leon, Angel & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serna, Gregorio, 2005. "Autoregresive conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 599-618, September.
  12. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  13. Mircea ASANDULUI, 2012. "A Multi-Horizon Comparison Of Volatility Forecasts: An Application To Stock Options Traded At Euronext Exchange Amsterdam," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 179-190, December.
  14. Cifarelli, giulio, 2002. "The information content of implied volatilities of options on eurodeposit futures traded on the LIFFE: is there long memory?," MPRA Paper 28538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Michael J. Fleming & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Heat waves, meteor showers, and trading volume: an analysis of volatility spillovers in the U.S. Treasury market," Staff Reports 82, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Andrew Carverhill & Terry Cheuk & Sigurd Dyrting, 2009. "The smirk in the S&P500 futures options prices: a linearized factor analysis," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 109-139, July.
  18. Joshua Rosenberg, 1999. "Empirical Tests of Interest Rate Model Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-015, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  19. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
  20. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2006. "The Information Content Of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility And Price Jumps," Working Paper 1188, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  21. Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2018. "Interest rate volatility and risk management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-202.
  22. Chuang Yuang Lin & Dar Hsin Chen & Chin Yu Tsai, 2011. "The limitation of monotonicity property of option prices: an empirical evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3103-3113.
  23. Ren‐Raw Chen & Pei‐Lin Hsieh & Jeffrey Huang & Xiaowei Li, 2023. "Predictive power of the implied volatility term structure in the fixed‐income market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 349-383, March.
  24. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Eui Jung Chang, 2004. "Tracking Brazilian Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 487, Econometric Society.
  25. Shao, Renyuan & Roe, Brian E., 2001. "Underpinnings For Prospective, Net Revenue Forecasting In Hog Finishing: Characterizing The Joint Distribution Of Corn, Soybean Meal And Lean Hogs Time Series," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18954, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  26. Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Are implied volatilities more informative? The Brazilian real exchange rate case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 569-576.
  27. Schlögl, Erik, 2013. "Option pricing where the underlying assets follow a Gram/Charlier density of arbitrary order," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 611-632.
  28. Ferreira, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting the comovements of spot interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 766-792, September.
  29. A. Vinay Kumar & Shikha Jaiswal, 2013. "The Information Content of Alternate Implied Volatility Models: Case of Indian Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(3), pages 293-321, December.
  30. Giulio, Cifarelli, 2004. "Yes, implied volatilities are not informationally efficient: an empirical estimate using options on interest rate futures contracts," MPRA Paper 28655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Bretó, Carles & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Forecasting volatility: does continuous time do better than discrete time?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws112518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  32. Belal E. Baaquie, 2001. "Quantum Field Theory of Forward Rates with Stochastic Volatility," Papers cond-mat/0110506, arXiv.org.
  33. Ren-Raw Chen & Oded Palmon, 2005. "A Non-Parametric Option Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 115-134, January.
  34. Christiansen, Charlotte & Strunk Hansen, Charlotte, 2000. "Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model," Finance Working Papers 00-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  35. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
  36. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  37. Ángel León & Gonzalo Rubio & Gregorio Serna, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Volatility, Skewness And Kurtosis," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-13, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  38. Narayan Tondapu, 2024. "Analyzing Currency Fluctuations: A Comparative Study of GARCH, EWMA, and IV Models for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Pairs," Papers 2402.07435, arXiv.org.
  39. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2004. "On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-127, August.
  40. Lan Zhang, 2012. "Implied and realized volatility: empirical model selection," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 259-275, May.
  41. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy Duong To, 2002. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Research Paper Series 80, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  42. Chong, James, 2005. "The forecasting abilities of implied and econometric variance-covariance models across financial measures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 463-490.
  43. Renyuan Shao & Brian Roe, 2003. "The design and pricing of fixed‐ and moving‐window contracts: An application of Asian‐Basket option pricing methods to the hog‐finishing sector," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1047-1073, November.
  44. Zhou, Anjun, 2002. "Modeling the volatility of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model: a multifactor GARCH analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 35-56, January.
  45. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Paper Series 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  46. Cabedo Semper, J. David & Moya Clemente, Ismael, 2003. "Value at risk calculation through ARCH factor methodology: Proposal and comparative analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(3), pages 516-528, November.
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