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Indicator Properties of the Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experiences
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Cited by:
- Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013.
"(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
- Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2012. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," IMFS Working Paper Series 56, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2013. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," Research Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland.
- Berument, Hakan & Kilinc, Zubeyir & Ozlale, Umit, 2004. "The effects of different inflation risk premiums on interest rate spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 317-324.
- Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2018. "Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 203-213, June.
- Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005.
"Forecasting recessions using the yield curve,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_004 is not listed on IDEAS
- Honda, Yuzo, 2004. "Bank capital regulations and the transmission mechanism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 675-688, September.
- Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010.
"Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
- Andrea Cipollini & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 006, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2009. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Working Papers 2072/15810, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
- Potter Simon M., 2000.
"A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, July.
- Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
- Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
- Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2015.
"Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 383-414, March.
- Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2012. "Monetary policy and the natural rate of interest," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 119-134, Bank for International Settlements.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
- Xuanhua Xu & Bin Pan, 2010. "Capital liquidity and residents’ consumption decision: An asymmetry analysis of economic prosperity," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 622-639, December.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017.
"Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
- Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2016. "Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread," Working Papers 2016-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Papagapitos, Agapitos, 2001.
"The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence and implications for European Monetary Union,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 397-404, March.
- Stilianos Fountas & Agapitos Papagapitos, 1999. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence and Implications for European Monetary Union," Working Papers 35, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1999.
- Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008.
"Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
- Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella, 2009. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Staff Reports 397, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Brock, Philip L. & Rojas Suarez, Liliana, 2000. "Understanding the behavior of bank spreads in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-134, October.
- De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
- Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
- George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007.
"Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
- Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," CAMA Working Papers 2006-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999.
"The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
- Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004.
"The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997,"
NBER Working Papers
10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Papers (Old Series) 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
- Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021.
"Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
- Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Erdem Basci & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc, 2011. "Financial Shocks and Industrial Employment," Working Papers 1112, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002.
"The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 832, CESifo.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009.
"Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
- Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
- Marco Bassetto & Luca Benzoni & Trevor Serrao, 2016.
"The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks,"
Working Paper Series
WP-2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Trevor Serrao & Luca Benzoni & Marco Bassetto, 2017. "The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1124, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023.
"Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2016. "Do stock market trading activities forecast recessions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 370-386.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Further VAR evidence for the effectiveness of a credit channel in Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,66, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
- Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby, 2014. "Optimal Exchange Intervention in an Inflation Targeting Regime: Some Cautionary Tales," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 429-450, July.
- Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020.
"The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
- Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "The Relation between the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread and the Real Economy: Stable or TimeVarying?," Working Papers 2019:7, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
- Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
- F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013.
"(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
- Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2012. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," IMFS Working Paper Series 56, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2013. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland.
- Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
- repec:ehl:lserod:56407 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
- Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015.
"Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
- Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Working Papers 1495, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
- Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," MPRA Paper 56737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "The real impact of financial shocks : evidence from the Republic of Korea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2010, The World Bank.
- Österholm, Pär, 2018. "The relation between treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads in Australia: Evidence from VARs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 186-192.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Lynch, Gerald J. & Payne, James E., 2003.
"The paper-bill spread and real output: what matters more, a change in the paper rate or a change in the bill rate?,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 233-246.
- Bradley T Ewing & Gerald J Lynch & James E Payne, 2003. "The paper‐bill spread and real output: what matters more, a change in the paper rate or a change in the bill rate?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 233-246.
- Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
- Aaron Tornell, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann," UCLA Economics Online Papers 216, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016.
"Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
- Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca & Christoffer Koch, 2016. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades," Economics Working Papers 16110, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca & Christoffer Koch, 2016. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades," NBER Working Papers 22021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca & Christoffer Koch, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Working Papers 1605, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
- Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005.
"Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
- Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2016. "Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 39-53.
- Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
- Chen, Yi-Ting, 2006. "Non-nested tests for competing U.S. narrow money demand functions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 339-363, March.
- Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Have the US macro-financial linkages changed? The balance sheet dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Chatterjee, Ujjal Kanti & Bazzana, Flavio, 2024. "Do corporate credit spreads predict the real economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
- Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie B. & Lynch, Gerald J., 2009. "Modeling the time-varying volatility of the paper-bill spread," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 404-414, September.
- Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit default swap spreads: The role of the housing sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 243-259.