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A Study of Price Forecasts

In: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf, 1984. "Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 717R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 1985.
  2. Peter Saunders, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Deft is‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series: A Comment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 290-292, September.
  3. Doug Hostland, "undated". "Fiscal Planning in an Era of Economic Stability," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-10, Department of Finance Canada.
  4. A. Steven Holland, 1984. "The impact of inflation uncertainty on the labor market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Aug), pages 21-28.
  5. Patric H. Hendershott & Roger D. Huang, 1983. "Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80," NBER Working Papers 1142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1998. "High and Uncertain Inflation: Results from a New Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 218-230, May.
  8. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  10. V. B. Hall, 1980. "Excess Demand and ExDectations Influences on Price Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 69-81, March.
  11. Michael Reiter, 1999. "Asset prices and the measurement of wealth and saving," Economics Working Papers 396, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  12. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  16. Robert Darin & Robert L. Hetzel, 1995. "An empirical measure of the real rate of interest," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 17-47.
  17. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "Rational Beliefs or Distorted Beliefs: The Equity Premium Puzzle and Micro Survey Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 677-689, January.
  18. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities," NBER Working Papers 0824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  20. Bharat R. Kolluri, 1982. "Anticipated Price Changes, Inflation Uncertainty, And Capital Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-149, June.
  21. Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Observations on the Indexation of Old Age Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 231-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
  23. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
  24. Stephen Turnovsky, 1979. "On the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(4), pages 719-746.
  25. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.
  26. Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," Economics Working Papers 92-191, University of California at Berkeley.
  27. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
  28. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  29. I. J. Macfarlane & J. R. Hawkins, 1983. "Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(4), pages 321-331, December.
  30. Duffy, David & Lunn, Peter D., 2009. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 139-163.
  31. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
  32. Adrian W. Throop, 1988. "An evaluation of alternative measures of expected inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
  33. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
  34. Ronald G. Ehrenberg & Leif Danziger & Gee San, 1982. "Cost-of-Living Adjustment Clauses in Union Contracts," NBER Working Papers 0998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
  36. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  37. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  38. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
  39. A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Does higher inflation lead to more uncertain inflation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Feb), pages 15-26.
  40. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  41. Sterman, John., 1986. "Expectation formation in behavioral simulation models," Working papers 1826-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  42. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
  43. Sotiris Tsolacos & Tony McGough, 1999. "Rational Expectations, Uncertainty and Cyclical Activity in the British Office Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(7), pages 1137-1149, June.
  44. Ball, Laurence & Croushore, Dean, 2003. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 473-484, August.
  45. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  46. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  47. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.
  48. Hayford, Marc D., 2000. "Inflation Uncertainty, Unemployment Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 315-329, April.
  49. Anonymous or collective, 1991. "II- Comment se forment les anticipations d'inflation ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 13-29.
  50. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
  51. Robert J. Gordon & Arthur M. Okun & Herbert Stein, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 101-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Paul Wachtel, 1977. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and Their Potential Usefulness," NBER Chapters, in: Analysis of Inflation: 1965–1974, pages 361-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Pavol Povala & Anna Cieslak, 2012. "Understanding bond risk premia," 2012 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  54. Peter Saunders, 1981. "The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(4), pages 368-378, December.
  55. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence that Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," Discussion Papers 369, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  56. Fishelson, Gideon, 1985. "On Some Real costs of Inflation: Lower Output and Productivity," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275388, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
  57. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
  58. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  59. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
  60. James S. Ang & Jess H. Chua & Anand S. Desai, 1979. "Evidence That The Common Stock Market Adjusts Fully For Expected Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 2(2), pages 97-109, September.
  61. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
  62. Elizabeth Yobaccio & Jack H. Rubens & David C. Ketcham, 1995. "The Inflation-Hedging Properties of Risk Assets: The Case of REITs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 279-296.
  63. Rik Hafer, 1985. "A look at the ASA-NBER inflation forecasts: tests of rationality and formation," Working Papers 1985-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  64. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1983. "Inflation and Labor-Market Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 1153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  66. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  67. Douglas W. Mitchell, 1981. "Determinants of Inflation Uncertainty," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 111-117, Apr-Jun.
  68. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 0845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September.
  70. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Eggertsson, Gauti, 2023. "It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 18116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Patric H. Hendershott & Roger D. Huang, 1985. "Debt and Equity Yields, 1926-1980," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 117-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
  73. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
  74. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  75. A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Real interest rates: what accounts for their recent rise?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Dec), pages 18-29.
  76. Victor Zarnowitz, 1983. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 1070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  78. Bierens, Herman J., 1987. "Armax model specification testing, with an application to unemployment in the Netherlands," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 161-190, May.
  79. Charles R. Hulten & Robert M. Schwab, 1987. "Income Originating in the State and Local Sector," NBER Working Papers 2314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
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