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Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection

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  1. Anna‐Lena Sachs & Michael Becker‐Peth & Stefan Minner & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2022. "Empirical newsvendor biases: Are target service levels achieved effectively and efficiently?," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(4), pages 1839-1855, April.
  2. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
  3. Phillips, Christina Jane & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2019. "Forecast quality improvement with Action Research: A success story at PharmaCo," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 129-143.
  4. Diwas S. KC & Bradley R. Staats & Maryam Kouchaki & Francesca Gino, 2020. "Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4397-4416, October.
  5. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  6. Maria R. Ibanez & Jonathan R. Clark & Robert S. Huckman & Bradley R. Staats, 2018. "Discretionary Task Ordering: Queue Management in Radiological Services," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4389-4407, September.
  7. Katharina E. Blankart & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The Effects of Off-label Drug Use on Disability and Medical Expenditure," NBER Working Papers 30440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eksoz, Can & Mansouri, S. Afshin & Bourlakis, Michael & Önkal, Dilek, 2019. "Judgmental adjustments through supply integration for strategic partnerships in food chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 20-33.
  9. Andrew M. Davis & Vishal Gaur & Dayoung Kim, 2021. "Consumer Learning from Own Experience and Social Information: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2924-2943, May.
  10. Tingliang Huang & Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo, 2013. "Bounded Rationality in Service Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 263-279, May.
  11. Matej Lorko & Maroš Servátka & Le Zhang, 2021. "Improving the Accuracy of Project Schedules," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(6), pages 1633-1646, June.
  12. Song-Hee Kim & Jordan Tong & Carol Peden, 2020. "Admission Control Biases in Hospital Unit Capacity Management: How Occupancy Information Hurdles and Decision Noise Impact Utilization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 5151-5170, November.
  13. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2014. "Impulse balance in the newsvendor game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-247.
  14. Hewage, Harsha Chamara & Perera, H. Niles & De Baets, Shari, 2022. "Forecast adjustments during post-promotional periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 461-472.
  15. Jiankun Sun & Dennis J. Zhang & Haoyuan Hu & Jan A. Van Mieghem, 2022. "Predicting Human Discretion to Adjust Algorithmic Prescription: A Large-Scale Field Experiment in Warehouse Operations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 846-865, February.
  16. Yu Jeffrey Hu & Jeroen Rombouts & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Fast Forecasting of Unstable Data Streams for On-Demand Service Platforms," Papers 2303.01887, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  17. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
  18. Yinghao Zhang & Karen Donohue & Tony Haitao Cui, 2016. "Contract Preferences and Performance for the Loss-Averse Supplier: Buyback vs. Revenue Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1734-1754, June.
  19. Paulo Gonçalves & Mohammad Moshtari, 2021. "The impact of information visibility on ordering dynamics in a supply chain: a behavioral perspective," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(2-3), pages 126-154, April.
  20. Samuel N. Kirshner & Brent B. Moritz, 2023. "For the future and from afar: Psychological distance and inventory decision‐making," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(1), pages 170-188, January.
  21. Daniel C. Feiler & Jordan D. Tong & Richard P. Larrick, 2013. "Biased Judgment in Censored Environments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 573-591, January.
  22. Daniel Feiler & Jordan Tong, 2022. "From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4685-4702, June.
  23. Khosrowabadi, Naghmeh & Hoberg, Kai & Imdahl, Christina, 2022. "Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1151-1167.
  24. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Luoma, Jukka & Saarinen, Esa, 2013. "On the importance of behavioral operational research: The case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(3), pages 623-634.
  25. Robert J. Batt & Jordan D. Tong, 2020. "Mean Service Metrics: Biased Quality Judgment and the Customer–Server Quality Gap," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 975-995, September.
  26. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
  27. Andreas Fügener & Jörn Grahl & Alok Gupta & Wolfgang Ketter, 2022. "Cognitive Challenges in Human–Artificial Intelligence Collaboration: Investigating the Path Toward Productive Delegation," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 678-696, June.
  28. Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
  29. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
  30. Mirko Kremer & Enno Siemsen & Douglas J. Thomas, 2016. "The Sum and Its Parts: Judgmental Hierarchical Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2745-2764, September.
  31. Xuan Bi & Gediminas Adomavicius & William Li & Annie Qu, 2022. "Improving Sales Forecasting Accuracy: A Tensor Factorization Approach with Demand Awareness," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 1644-1660, May.
  32. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek, 2019. "Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 144-156.
  33. Christiane B. Haubitz & Cedric A. Lehmann & Andreas Fügener & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2021. "The Risk of Algorithm Transparency: How Algorithm Complexity Drives the Effects on Use of Advice," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 078, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  34. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Tan, Senren, 2020. "On double-boundary non-crossing probability for a class of compound processes with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 602-613.
  35. Cedric A. Lehmann & Christiane B. Haubitz & Andreas Fügener & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2022. "The risk of algorithm transparency: How algorithm complexity drives the effects on the use of advice," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3419-3434, September.
  36. Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen & Mirko Kremer, 2014. "Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 23(7), pages 1146-1160, July.
  37. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "Intelligent digital twin (iDT) for supply chain stress-testing, resilience, and viability," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
  38. Tom F. Tan & Bradley R. Staats, 2020. "Behavioral Drivers of Routing Decisions: Evidence from Restaurant Table Assignment," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(4), pages 1050-1070, April.
  39. Bin Shen & Hau-Ling Chan, 2017. "Forecast Information Sharing for Managing Supply Chains in the Big Data Era: Recent Development and Future Research," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-26, February.
  40. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
  41. Robert J. Batt & Santiago Gallino, 2019. "Finding a Needle in a Haystack: The Effects of Searching and Learning on Pick-Worker Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2624-2645, June.
  42. Bradley R. Staats & Diwas S. KC & Francesca Gino, 2018. "Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 804-824, February.
  43. Vivek Choudhary & Masha Shunko & Serguei Netessine & Seongjoon Koo, 2022. "Nudging Drivers to Safety: Evidence from a Field Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4196-4214, June.
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