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Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Yaniv, Ilan & Kleinberger, Eli, 2000. "Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 260-281, November.
  3. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
  4. Sanders, N. R., 1997. "The impact of task properties feedback on time series judgmental forecasting tasks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 135-144, April.
  5. David R. Mandel & Christopher W. Karvetski & Mandeep K. Dhami, 2018. "Boosting intelligence analysts’ judgment accuracy: What works, what fails?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(6), pages 607-621, November.
  6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:6:p:607-621 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
  8. Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
  9. Hurley, W. J. & Lior, D. U., 2002. "Combining expert judgment: On the performance of trimmed mean vote aggregation procedures in the presence of strategic voting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 142-147, July.
  10. Ralf Dewenter & Ulrich Heimeshoff, 2017. "Predicting Advertising Volumes Using Structural Time Series Models: A Case Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1644-1652.
  11. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  12. Bruce H. Clark & David B. Montgomery, 1998. "Deterrence, Reputations, and Competitive Cognition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 62-82, January.
  13. Acosta, Hernando & Wu, Dongrui & Forrest, Barrie M., 2010. "Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 850-863.
  14. Dennis P. Slevin & Larry W. Boone & Eileen M. Russo & Richard S. Allen, 1998. "CONFIDE: A Collective Decision-Making Procedure Using Confidence Estimates of Individual Judgements," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 179-194, March.
  15. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Heuristics Unveiled," Working Papers 400814162, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  16. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
  17. Osherson, Daniel & Vardi, Moshe Y., 2006. "Aggregating disparate estimates of chance," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 148-173, July.
  18. Dewenter, Ralf & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2016. "Predicting advertising volumes: A structural time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 228, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  19. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Yaniv, Ilan, 1997. "Weighting and Trimming: Heuristics for Aggregating Judgments under Uncertainty," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 237-249, March.
  21. Yaniv, Ilan, 2004. "Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-13, January.
  22. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
  23. Scheibehenne, Benjamin & Broder, Arndt, 2007. "Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 415-426.
  24. Stephan M. Wagner & Christian Rau & Eckhard Lindemann, 2010. "Multiple Informant Methodology: A Critical Review and Recommendations," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 38(4), pages 582-618, May.
  25. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2005. "Value Line and I/B/E/S earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 185-198.
  26. Armstrong, J. Scott & Brodie, Roderick J., 1999. "Forecasting for Marketing," MPRA Paper 81690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Robert Mislavsky & Celia Gaertig, 2022. "Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 541-563, January.
  28. Lisheng He & Pantelis P. Analytis & Sudeep Bhatia, 2022. "The Wisdom of Model Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3635-3659, May.
  29. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
  30. Budescu, David V. & Rantilla, Adrian K. & Yu, Hsiu-Ting & Karelitz, Tzur M., 2003. "The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 178-194, January.
  31. Lubecke, Thomas H. & Nam, Kyung Doo & Markland, Robert E. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1998. "Combining foreign exchange rate forecasts using neural networks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-27.
  32. Saghafian, Soroush & Tomlin, Brian & Biller, Stephan, 2018. "The Internet of Things and Information Fusion: Who Talks to Who?," Working Paper Series rwp18-009, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  33. Philip E. Tetlock & Christopher Karvetski & Ville A. Satopää & Kevin Chen, 2024. "Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
  34. David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu, 2006. "To Bayes or Not to Bayes? A Comparison of Two Classes of Models of Information Aggregation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 145-162, September.
  35. Joanna L.Y. Ho, 1999. "Technology and Group Decision Process in Going-Concern Judgements," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 33-49, January.
  36. Ilan Yaniv, 2005. "Receiving Other People's Advice: Influence and Benefit," Discussion Paper Series dp405, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  37. Fischer, Ilan & Harvey, Nigel, 1999. "Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 227-246, July.
  38. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Testing Models of Complexity Aversion," Working Papers 400814269, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  39. Waychal, Nachiketas & Laha, Arnab Kumar & Sinha, Ankur, 2022. "Customized forecasting with Adaptive Ensemble Generator," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-06-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  40. Yaniv, Ilan & Milyavsky, Maxim, 2007. "Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 104-120, May.
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