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Indicator Properties of the Paper—Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experience

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
  2. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  4. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
  5. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
  6. Brock, Philip L. & Rojas Suarez, Liliana, 2000. "Understanding the behavior of bank spreads in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-134, October.
  7. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Further VAR evidence for the effectiveness of a credit channel in Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,66, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  8. Bradley T Ewing & Gerald J Lynch & James E Payne, 2003. "The paper‐bill spread and real output: what matters more, a change in the paper rate or a change in the bill rate?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 233-246.
  9. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  10. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby, 2014. "Optimal Exchange Intervention in an Inflation Targeting Regime: Some Cautionary Tales," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 429-450, July.
  11. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
  12. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  13. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
  15. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
  16. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
  17. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
  18. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2016. "Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 39-53.
  19. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  20. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
  21. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
  22. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  23. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  25. Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
  26. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2006. "Non-nested tests for competing U.S. narrow money demand functions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 339-363, March.
  27. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  28. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
  29. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
  30. Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  31. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
  32. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_004 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
  34. Honda, Yuzo, 2004. "Bank capital regulations and the transmission mechanism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 675-688, September.
  35. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  36. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
  37. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
  38. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
  39. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
  40. repec:ehl:lserod:56407 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
  42. Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Have the US macro-financial linkages changed? The balance sheet dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  43. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  44. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
  45. Chatterjee, Ujjal Kanti & Bazzana, Flavio, 2024. "Do corporate credit spreads predict the real economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
  46. Fountas, Stilianos & Papagapitos, Agapitos, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence and implications for European Monetary Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 397-404, March.
  47. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017. "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
  48. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Potter Simon M., 2000. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, July.
  50. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
  51. Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "The real impact of financial shocks : evidence from the Republic of Korea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2010, The World Bank.
  52. Erdem Basci & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc, 2011. "Financial Shocks and Industrial Employment," Working Papers 1112, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  53. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie B. & Lynch, Gerald J., 2009. "Modeling the time-varying volatility of the paper-bill spread," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 404-414, September.
  54. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
  55. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 383-414, March.
  56. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit default swap spreads: The role of the housing sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 243-259.
  57. Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
  58. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  59. Österholm, Pär, 2018. "The relation between treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads in Australia: Evidence from VARs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 186-192.
  60. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
  61. Huifeng Chang & Adrien D'Avernas & Andrea L. Eisfeldt, 2024. "Bonds versus Equities: Information for Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3893-3941, December.
  62. Aaron Tornell, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann," UCLA Economics Online Papers 216, UCLA Department of Economics.
  63. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
  64. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
  65. Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
  66. Marco Bassetto & Luca Benzoni & Trevor Serrao, 2016. "The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Paper Series WP-2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  67. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2016. "Do stock market trading activities forecast recessions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 370-386.
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