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Estimating Subjective Probabilities

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Rutström, E. Elisabet & Wilcox, Nathaniel T., 2009. "Stated beliefs versus inferred beliefs: A methodological inquiry and experimental test," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 616-632, November.
  2. Andersson, Ola & Tyran, Jean-Robert & Wengström, Erik & Holm, Håkan J., 2013. "Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 964, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  3. Constantinos Antoniou & Glenn Harrison & Morten Lau & Daniel Read, 2015. "Subjective Bayesian beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 35-54, February.
  4. Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Ponti, Giovanni, 2017. "Social Motives vs Social Influence: an Experiment on Time Preferences," MPRA Paper 76486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Simone Cerroni & Sandra Notaro & W. Douglass Shaw, 2011. "Do Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions Affect the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An Experimental Investigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  6. Xiangwen Kong & Chengyan Yue & Eric Watkins & Mike Barnes & Yufeng Lai, 2023. "Investigating the Effectiveness of Irrigation Restriction Length on Water Use Behavior," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(1), pages 251-268, January.
  7. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  8. Robalo, Pedro & Sayag, Rei, 2018. "Paying is believing: The effect of costly information on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 114-125.
  9. repec:ehu:dfaeii:6474 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Gauriot, Romain & Heger, Stephanie A. & Slonim, Robert, 2020. "Altruism or diminishing marginal utility?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 24-48.
  11. Bruhin, Adrian & Santos-Pinto, Luís & Staubli, David, 2018. "How do beliefs about skill affect risky decisions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 350-371.
  12. Di Girolamo, Amalia & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2015. "Subjective belief distributions and the characterization of economic literacy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-12.
  13. Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Giovanni Ponti & Josefa Tomás, 2016. "Myopic Loss Aversion under Ambiguity and Gender Effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(12), pages 1-11, December.
  14. Dirk Engelmann & Jana Friedrichsen & Roel van Veldhuizen & Pauline Vorjohann & Joachim Winter, 2023. "Decomposing Trust," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 454, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  15. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
  16. Ouazad, Amine & Page, Lionel, 2013. "Students' perceptions of teacher biases: Experimental economics in schools," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 116-130.
  17. Glenn W. Harrison, 2024. "Risk preferences and risk perceptions in insurance experiments: some methodological challenges," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 49(1), pages 127-161, March.
  18. Rey, David & Dixit, Vinayak V. & Ygnace, Jean-Luc & Waller, S. Travis, 2016. "An endogenous lottery-based incentive mechanism to promote off-peak usage in congested transit systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-55.
  19. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2014. "Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-140.
  20. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd & Ulm, Eric R., 2015. "Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 68-71.
  21. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
  22. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd & Ulm, Eric R., 2017. "Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 430-448.
  23. Tsang, Ming, 2020. "Estimating uncertainty aversion using the source method in stylized tasks with varying degrees of uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  24. Florian Artinger & Filippos Exadaktylos & Hannes Koppel & Lauri Sääksvuori, 2010. "Applying Quadratic Scoring Rule transparently in multiple choice settings: A note," ThE Papers 10/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  25. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
  26. Guillaume Hollard & Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2010. "Subjective beliefs formation and elicitation rules: experimental evidence," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10088, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  27. Glenn W. Harrison & Jimmy Martínez-Correa, 2014. "Choice modeling and risk management," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 18, pages 413-426, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  28. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Aurelien Baillon & Laetitia Placido & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 695-723, April.
  29. Cárcamo, Jorge & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2016. "Assessing small-scale raspberry producers' risk and ambiguity preferences: Evidence from field-experiment data in rural Chile," DARE Discussion Papers 1610, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
  30. Antoniou, Constantinos & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Read, Daniel, 2017. "Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 737-750, April.
  31. Cheung, Stephen L. & Johnstone, Lachlan, 2017. "True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10545, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  32. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "The validity of risk estimates elicited via the Exchangeability Method: An experimental investigation of consumers’ perceived health risks," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124100, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  33. Hao, Li & Houser, Daniel, 2017. "Perceptions, intentions, and cheating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 52-73.
  34. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2019. "Behavioral insurance and economic theory: A literature review," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-182, July.
  35. Alexander Ugarov, 2023. "Peer Prediction for Peer Review: Designing a Marketplace for Ideas," Papers 2303.16855, arXiv.org.
  36. Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun & Nicholson, Charles F. & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Steenhuis, Tammo S., 2016. "Accounting for user expectations in the valuation of reliable irrigation water access in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 45-55.
  37. Ingrid Burfurd & Tom Wilkening, 2022. "Cognitive heterogeneity and complex belief elicitation," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 557-592, April.
  38. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & Arne Hole & E. Rutström, 2012. "Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 161-184, July.
  39. Petrolia, Daniel R., 2016. "Risk preferences, risk perceptions, and risky food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-48.
  40. Tsang, Ming, 2022. "Risk perception in an endogenous information environment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 355-372.
  41. David Scrogin, 2023. "Estimating risk and time preferences over public lotteries: Findings from the field and stream," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 73-106, August.
  42. Xiaoxue Sherry Gao & Glenn W. Harrison & Rusty Tchernis, 2023. "Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 273-303, April.
  43. de Brauw, Alan & Eozenou, Patrick, 2014. "Measuring risk attitudes among Mozambican farmers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-74.
  44. Brian Albert Monroe, 2020. "The statistical power of individual-level risk preference estimation," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(2), pages 168-188, December.
  45. Cristóbal De La Maza & Alex Davis & Cleotilde Gonzalez & Inês Azevedo, 2019. "Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 488-504, February.
  46. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Rasocha, Vlastimil, 2021. "Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 234-256.
  47. Adriana Breaban & Charles N. Noussair & Andreea Victoria Popescu, 2018. "Your money or your time? Experimental evidence on overbidding in all-pay auctions," Working Papers 18-20, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  48. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2011. "Honest Lies," Working Papers 1021, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
  49. Cárcamo, Jorge & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2016. "Assessing small-scale raspberry producers’ risk and ambiguity preferences: evidence from field- experiment data in rural Chile," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 260774, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
  50. Hong Fu & Yuehua Zhang & Yinuo An & Li Zhou & Yanling Peng & Rong Kong & Calum G. Turvey, 2022. "Subjective and objective risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for agricultural insurance: evidence from an in-the-field choice experiment in rural China," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 98-121, March.
  51. Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2020. "Essays in asset pricing and auctions," Other publications TiSEM 879f7643-7123-4bc8-a5e7-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  52. repec:exc:wpaper:2013-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Hakaru Iguchi & Hajime Katayama & Junichi Yamanoi, 2022. "CEOs’ religiosity and corporate green initiatives," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 497-522, January.
  54. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.
  55. Haitham Nobanee & Maryam Alhajjar & Mohammed Ahmed Alkaabi & Majed Musabah Almemari & Mohamed Abdulla Alhassani & Naema Khamis Alkaabi & Saeed Abdulla Alshamsi & Hanan Hamed AlBlooshi, 2021. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Objective and Subjective Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
  56. Stefan T. Trautmann & Gijs Kuilen, 2015. "Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 2116-2135, December.
  57. Guillaume Hollard & Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2016. "In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 80(3), pages 363-387, March.
  58. Amalia Di Girolamo & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & J. Todd Swarthout, 2013. "Characterizing Financial and Statistical Literacy," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  59. Theo Offerman & Asa B. Palley, 2016. "Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
  60. Ciccarone, Giuseppe & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Papa, Stefano, 2020. "The rationale of in-group favoritism: An experimental test of three explanations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 554-568.
  61. Jaspersen, Johannes G., 2013. "An incentive compatible scoring rule for ordinal judgments of expected utility maximizers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 245-248.
  62. Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia & Joan Montllor-Serrats & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2020. "Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-27, November.
  63. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
  64. Scrogin, David, 2018. "Risk preferences over simple and compound public lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 85-87.
  65. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  66. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2011. "Real Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions: An Experimental Study Investigating the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via Exchangeability Method," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114313, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  67. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 201-215.
  68. Glenn W. Harrison, 2019. "The behavioral welfare economics of insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(2), pages 137-175, September.
  69. Steffen Andersen & Amalia Girolamo & Glenn Harrison & Morten Lau, 2014. "Risk and time preferences of entrepreneurs: evidence from a Danish field experiment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(3), pages 341-357, October.
  70. Cerroni, Simone & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 72-84.
  71. Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Ponti, Giovanni, 2017. "Social motives vs social influence: An experiment on interdependent time preferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 177-194.
  72. Robin Chark & Vincent Mak & A. V. Muthukrishnan, 2020. "The premium as informational cue in insurance decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 369-404, April.
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