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How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

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Cited by:

  1. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  2. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
  3. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
  4. Quezada, George & Adcock, M & Bratanova, Alexandra & Ponce Reyes, R & Hajkowicz, Stefan, 2017. "Surfing the Digital Tsunami: Scenarios Report. Preliminary scenarios exploring the decade ahead for Australian business and the economy," MPRA Paper 113820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  6. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
  7. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
  8. Burt, George & Nair, Anup Karath, 2020. "Rigidities of imagination in scenario planning: Strategic foresight through ‘Unlearning’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  9. de Bruin, Jilske Olda & Kok, Kasper & Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine, 2017. "Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies: Insights from the Dutch forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 269-282.
  10. James Derbyshire, 2020. "History and scenario planning: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
  11. Helena Knyazeva, 2020. "Strategies of Dynamic Complexity Management," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 34-45.
  12. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  13. Ariane Voglhuber-Slavinsky & Hartmut Derler & Björn Moller & Ewa Dönitz & Enno Bahrs & Simon Berner, 2021. "Measures to Increase Local Food Supply in the Context of European Framework Scenarios for the Agri-Food Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
  14. Bourgeois, Robin & Penunia, Esther & Bisht, Sonali & Boruk, Don, 2017. "Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 178-188.
  15. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
  16. Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.
  17. Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
  18. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
  19. Chang, Suk-Gwon, 2015. "A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-20.
  20. Minkkinen, Matti & Auffermann, Burkhard & Ahokas, Ira, 2019. "Six foresight frames: Classifying policy foresight processes in foresight systems according to perceived unpredictability and pursued change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  21. Tyfield, David & Zuev, Dennis, 2018. "Stasis, dynamism and emergence of the e-mobility system in China: A power relational perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 259-270.
  22. James Derbyshire, 2019. "Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
  23. Ilkka Tuomi, 2019. "Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
  24. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
  25. Pouru-Mikkola, Laura & Minkkinen, Matti & Malho, Maria & Neuvonen, Aleksi, 2023. "Exploring knowledge creation, capabilities, and relations in a distributed policy foresight system: Case Finland," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
  26. Susara E. Merwe & Reinette Biggs & Rika Preiser, 2020. "Sensemaking as an approach for resilience assessment in an Essential Service Organization," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 84-106, March.
  27. Ramirez, Rafael & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "Rethinking the 2×2 scenario method: Grid or frames?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 254-264.
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