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Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?
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Cited by:
- Bottazzi, Giulio & Devetag, Giovanna & Pancotto, Francesca, 2011.
"Does volatility matter? Expectations of price return and variability in an asset pricing experiment,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 124-146, February.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag & Francesca Pancotto, 2008. "Does Volatility matter? Expectations of price return and variability in an asset pricing experiment," CEEL Working Papers 0801, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag & Francesca Pancotto, 2009. "Does Volatility matter? Expectations of price return and variability in an asset pricing experiment," LEM Papers Series 2009/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010.
"Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
- Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2010. "Heterogeneity, Learning and Information Stickiness in Inflation Expectations," Post-Print hal-00849412, HAL.
- Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2014.
"Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1421-1456, October.
- Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2011. "Economic literacy and inflation expectations: evidence from a laboratory experiment," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008.
"Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
- Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Expectations and Bubbles in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
- Mason, Charles F. & Phillips, Owen R., 2001. "Dynamic learning in a two-person experimental game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1305-1344, September.
- repec:zbw:rwirep:0528 is not listed on IDEAS
- John Beshears & James J. Choi & Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2013.
"What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 570-574, May.
- Beshears, John Leonard & Choi, James J & Fuster, Andreas & Laibson, David I. & Madrian, Brigitte, 2013. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting," Scholarly Articles 12378032, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
- repec:tiu:tiutis:bdbe10dd-649c-4521-ab28-7aa051a5bf82 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2009.
"Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 253-265, May.
- Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2004. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Michele Bernasconi & Oliver Kirchkamp & Paolo Paruolo, 2009. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," Post-Print hal-00688186, HAL.
- Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2004. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? : Experiments with real world and lab data," Papers 04-27, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Cars H. Hommes, 2009.
"Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets,"
Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008.
"Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013.
"Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis,"
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
- Luis Ricardo Maertens & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2012. "Inflation Expectations Formation In The Presence Of Policy Shifts And Structural Breaks: An Experimental Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2012-339, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
- Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997.
"Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1995. "Expected and Realized Income Changes : Evidence From the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel," Other publications TiSEM cd97154d-b1fd-490e-9e30-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1995. "Expected and Realized Income Changes : Evidence From the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012.
"Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
- Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 1-48, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 17301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fuster, Andreas & Herbert, Benjamin & Laibson, David I., 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," Scholarly Articles 10140029, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Adaptive learning in the Cobweb with an endogenous gain sequence," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2004-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014.
"Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance,"
Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Assenza, T. & Bao, T. & Massaro, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016.
"The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
- Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2012. "The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment," Staff Reports 543, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad, 2021. "Dynamic risk attributes in Malaysia stock markets: Behavioural finance insights," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5793-5814, October.
- Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013.
"Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H. & Philipse, R., 2010. "Evolutionary Selection of Expectations in Positive and Negative Feedback Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007.
"Learning In Cobweb Experiments,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
- Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
- Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Learning in Coweb Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- C.H. Hommes & J.H. Sonnemans & J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velde, 2003. "Learning in Cobweb Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-020/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Harald Lang & Florian Morath, 2015. "A Glance into the Tunnel: Experimental Evidence on Income Comparisons under Uncertainty," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2015-13, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
- Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics.
- Abhishek Das & Arpita Ghose & Gautam Gupta, 2018. "Expectation Formation in a New Keynesian Economy: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
- Ondrej Rydval, 2012.
"The Causal Effect of Cognitive Abilities on Economic Behavior: Evidence from a Forecasting Task with Varying Cognitive Load,"
Jena Economics Research Papers
2011-064, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Ondrej Rydval, 2012. "The Causal Effect of Cognitive Abilities on Economic Behavior: Evidence from a Forecasting Task with Varying Cognitive Load," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp457, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Becker, Otwin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2007. "Heuristic modeling of expectation formation in a complex experimental information environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 975-985, January.
- Onozaki, Tamotsu & Sieg, Gernot & Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Complex dynamics in a cobweb model with adaptive production adjustment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 101-115, February.
- Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2018. "A laboratory experiment on the heuristic switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-42.
- Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013.
"Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
- Nobuyuki Hanaki & Cars Hommes & Dávid Kopányi & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Jan Tuinstra, 2023. "Forecasting returns instead of prices exacerbates financial bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1185-1213, November.
- Annarita COLASANTE & Antonio PALESTRINI & Alberto RUSSO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2015. "Adaptive Expectations with Correction Bias: Evidence from the lab," Working Papers 409, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, June.
- Johannes Leitner & Robert Schmidt, 2007. "Expectation formation in an experimental foreign exchange market," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, June.
- Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015.
"House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
- Eleonora Granziera & Sharon Kozicki, 2012. "House Price Dynamics: Fundamentals and Expectations," Staff Working Papers 12-12, Bank of Canada.
- Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009.
"Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
- Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert & Bofinger, Peter, 2003.
"Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices,"
W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers
39, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
- Bofinger, Peter & Schmidt, Robert & Leitner, Johannes, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Paul Rabanal & Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Olga A. Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2019. "Market timing under public and private information," Working Papers 151, Peruvian Economic Association.
- John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Paper 334, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2014.
- Otwin Becker & Johannes Leitner & Ulrike Leopold‐Wildburger, 2008. "Modeling Expectation Formation Involving Several Sources of Information," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 96-112, February.
- Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Heterogeneous Adaptive Expectations and Coordination in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper 66578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alfred Maußner, 1997. "Learning to believe in nonrational expectations that support pareto-superior outcomes," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 235-256, October.
- repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lang, Harald & Konrad, Kai A. & Morath, Florian, 2015. "A Glance into the Tunnel: Experimental Evidence of Expectations Versus Comparison Considerations," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113017, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Deversi, Marvin, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 528, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Michael W. M. Roos & Wolfgang J. Luhan, 2013. "Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 513-531, July.
- Kopányi, Dávid & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A. & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
- Marius Eisele & Christian Troost & Thomas Berger, 2021. "How Bayesian Are Farmers When Making Climate Adaptation Decisions? A Computer Laboratory Experiment for Parameterising Models of Expectation Formation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 805-828, September.
- Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
- Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Swenson, Charles W., 1997. "Rational expectations and tax policy: Experimental market evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 433-455, March.
- Chernulich, Aleksei & Horowitz, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A & Sharifova , Manizha, 2021. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: An experiment," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021/3, University of Stavanger.
- Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brock Mendel, 2010.
"Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 67-84, Fall.
- Laibson, David I. & Fuster, Andreas & Mendel, Brock, 2010. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 9938147, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017.
"Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
- Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2023. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 339-356, April.
- Michael W. M. Roos & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012.
"The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations,"
German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 196-210, May.
- Roos, Michael W.M. & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2011. "The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations," Kiel Working Papers 1723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Katchova, Ani & Miranda, Mario Javier, 2016. "Examining pricing mechanics in the poultry value chain - empirical evidence from Pakistan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235953, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Marvin Deversi, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0528, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012.
"Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2011. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- repec:bla:germec:v:9:y:2008:i::p:96-112 is not listed on IDEAS
- Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
- Findley, T. Scott, 2015.
"Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
- T. Scott Findley, 2015. "Hyperbolic Memory Discounting and the Political Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 5556, CESifo.
- Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad, 2018. "Behavioural Asset Pricing Determinants in a Factor and Style Investing Framework," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 32-52.