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Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Economically rational expectations theory: evidence from the WTI oil price survey data," Post-Print halshs-00173113, HAL.
  4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
  5. Chu, Pyung Kun & Hoff, Kristian & Molnár, Peter & Olsvik, Magnus, 2022. "Crude oil: Does the futures price predict the spot price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
  7. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
  8. Scarpa, Elisa & Longo, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  9. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011. "Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions," Energy: Resources and Markets 120042, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  10. Mensi, Walid & Brahim, Mariem & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Time-varying causality and correlations between spot and futures prices of natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  11. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04140866, HAL.
  12. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
  13. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, "undated". "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  14. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
  15. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  16. Tao Xiong & Miao Li & Jia Cao, 2023. "Do Futures Prices Help Forecast Spot Prices? Evidence from China’s New Live Hog Futures," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, August.
  17. Mamatzakis, E & Remoundos, P, 2010. "Threshold Cointegration in BRENT crude futures market," MPRA Paper 19978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2010. "Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 432-441, March.
  19. Jeffrey A Frankel & Andrew K Rose, 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  20. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Working Papers hal-03508699, HAL.
  21. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2013. "The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 271-282.
  22. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
  23. Pagano Patrizio & Pisani Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
  24. Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May.
  25. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Narayan, 2013. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 1024-1045, November.
  26. Ahmad R. Jalali‐Naini & Maryam Kazemi Manesh, 2006. "Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(2), pages 55-70, June.
  27. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
  28. A. Mazaheri, 1999. "Convenience yield, mean reverting prices, and long memory in the petroleum market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-50.
  29. Andrés Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2015. "Commodity derivative valuation under a factor model with time-varying market prices of risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-93, April.
  30. Gulen, S. Gurcan, 1998. "Efficiency in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 13-21.
  31. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
  32. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  33. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  34. Abosedra, Salah & Baghestani, Hamid, 2004. "On the predictive accuracy of crude oil futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1389-1393, August.
  35. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard & Oglend, Atle, 2015. "The Spot-Forward Relationship in the Atlantic Salmon Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/16, University of Stavanger.
  36. David Cabedo, J. & Moya, Ismael, 2003. "Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 239-253, May.
  37. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
  38. Kisswell Basira & Lawrence Dhliwayo & Knowledge Chinhamu & Retius Chifurira & Florence Matarise, 2024. "Estimation and Prediction of Commodity Returns Using Long Memory Volatility Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, April.
  39. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
  40. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44, April.
  41. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Pricing Option on Commodity Futures under String Shock," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  42. E. Mamatzakis, 2014. "Revealing asymmetries in the loss function of WTI oil futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 411-426, September.
  43. Trevor A. Reeve & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of commodity futures prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
  45. Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
  46. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael LeBlanc & Olivier Coibion, 2005. "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline," NBER Working Papers 11033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Xie, Xiaoyu & Zhu, Heliang, 2021. "The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  49. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2023. "Energy price volatility affects decisions to purchase energy using capital: Motor vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  50. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  51. Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, June.
  52. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 924-935, September.
  53. Kolodziej, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2013. "The role of trader positions in spot and futures prices for WTI," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 176-182.
  54. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2019. "The forward premium anomaly in the energy futures markets: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 600-615.
  55. Fan, Ying & Liang, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "A generalized pattern matching approach for multi-step prediction of crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 889-904, May.
  56. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, "undated". "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  57. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, "undated". "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
  58. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-031 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  60. Onder Buberkoku, 2017. "Examining Energy Futures Market Efficiency Under Multiple Regime Shifts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 61-71.
  61. Ai Han & Yanan He & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Forecasting Interval-valued Crude Oil Prices via Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  62. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.
  63. Salah Abosedra, 2005. "Futures versus univariate forecast of crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(4), pages 231-241, December.
  64. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
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