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Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation

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  1. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Semi-Parametric Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 447-476, April.
  2. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Alternative estimators and unit root tests for seasonal autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 35-73, May.
  3. Harvey, David I. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Sample size, lag order and critical values of seasonal unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2734-2751, June.
  4. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2002. "A Note on Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 305-310, August.
  5. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy & Giulietti, Monica, 2007. "Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross section dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 179-184, November.
  6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9927-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
  8. Julio C. Alonso & Andrés M. Arcila & Sebastián Montenegro, 2015. "¿Estabiliza el FEPA los precios locales del azúcar?," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, issue 04, June.
  9. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
  10. Mårten Löf & Johan Lyhagen, 2003. "On seasonal error correction when the processes include different numbers of unit roots," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 377-389.
  11. Braun, R. Anton & Evans, Charles L., 1995. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-531, April.
  12. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
  13. Seamus McErlean & Ziping Wu & Joan Moss & Jos Ijpelaar & Andrew Doherty, 2003. "Do EU direct payments to beef producers belong in the ‘blue box’?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(1), pages 55-73, March.
  14. Castro, Tomás del Barrio & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "The Impact Of Persistent Cycles On Zero Frequency Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 1289-1313, December.
  15. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Arcila Vásquez, Andrés Mauricio & Montenegro Arana, Sebastián, 2016. "Herramientas de estabilización de los precios internos del azúcar en Colombia: ¿Funcionan?," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 105-126, December.
  16. Alkhathlan, Khalid & Gately, Dermot & Javid, Muhammad, 2014. "Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 209-225.
  17. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
  18. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Efficient tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 548-573, December.
  19. Josep LluIs Carrion-I-Silvestre & Tomas Del Barrio & Enrique Lopez-Bazo, 2004. "Evidence on the purchasing power parity in a panel of cities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 961-966.
  20. Herwartz, Helmut, 1997. "Performance of periodic error correction models in forecasting consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-431, September.
  21. Shin, Dong Wan & Oh, Man-Suk, 2004. "Fully modified semiparametric GLS estimation for regressions with nonstationary seasonal regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 247-280, October.
  22. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2001. "On regression-based tests for seasonal unit roots in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 91-117, August.
  23. Kalyvitis, Sarantis C., 1997. "Evaluating the real effects of devaluation expectations in Greece under alternative policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-236, April.
  24. Uwe Hassler & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2004. "Seasonal Unit Root Tests Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 33-53, January.
  25. Frank Reinhardt & David Giles, 2001. "Are cigarette bans really good economic policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(11), pages 1365-1368.
  26. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "The effect of linear filters on dynamic time series with structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 69-97, January.
  27. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
  28. Julio César Alonso Cifuentes & Andrés Mauricio Arcila Vásquez & Sebastián Montenegro Arana, 2017. "Internal price stabilization tools in the Colombian sugar market: Do they work?," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 105-126, Enero - J.
  29. Castro, Tomás del Barrio & Osborn, Denise R. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "On Augmented Hegy Tests For Seasonal Unit Roots," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 1121-1143, October.
  30. Paulo Rodrigues & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A sequential approach to testing seasonal unit roots in high frequency data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 555-569.
  31. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.
  32. Smith, Richard J. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1998. "Additional critical values and asymptotic representations for seasonal unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 269-288, August.
  33. A. M. Robert Taylor, 2003. "Locally Optimal Tests Against Unit Roots in Seasonal Time Series Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 591-612, September.
  34. Shin, Dong Wan & Oh, Man-Suk, 2000. "Semiparametric tests for seasonal unit roots based on a semiparametric feasible GLSE," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 207-218, November.
  35. Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997. "Structural breaks and seasonal integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September.
  36. Lee, Hahn S. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "A note on the critical values for the maximum likelihood (seasonal) cointegration tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 137-145, August.
  37. Antonio Rubia, 2001. "Testing For Weekly Seasonal Unit Roots In Daily Electricity Demand: Evidence From Deregulated Markets," Working Papers. Serie EC 2001-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  38. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  39. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
  40. Smith, Richard J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert & del Barrio Castro, Tomas, 2009. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 527-560, April.
  41. Hans Franses, Philip & Koehler, Anne B., 1998. "A model selection strategy for time series with increasing seasonal variation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 405-414, September.
  42. Tom�s del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2016. "The Performance of Lag Selection and Detrending Methods for HEGY Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 122-168, January.
  43. Burridge, Peter & Robert Taylor, A. M., 2004. "Bootstrapping the HEGY seasonal unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 67-87, November.
  44. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anton Skrobotov & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2019. "Wild bootstrap seasonal unit root tests for time series with periodic nonstationary volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 509-532, May.
  45. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy & Giulietti, Monica, 2005. "Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 229-235, February.
  46. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
  47. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
  48. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
  49. del Barrio Castro, Tomas, 2006. "On the performance of the DHF tests against nonstationary alternatives," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 291-297, February.
  50. Ghysels, Éric, 1994. "L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 43-62, mars.
  51. da Silva Lopes, Artur C. B., 2001. "The robustness of tests for seasonal differencing to structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 173-179, May.
  52. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
  53. Francesco Bravo, 2010. "Nonparametric likelihood inference for general autoregressive models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(1), pages 79-106, March.
  54. Smith, Richard J. & Robert Taylor, A. M., 2001. "Recursive and rolling regression-based tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 309-336, December.
  55. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  56. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, New Economic School (NES).
  57. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes & Antonio Montanes, 2005. "The Behavior Of Hegy Tests For Quarterly Time Series With Seasonal Mean Shifts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 83-108.
  58. Ucar, Nuri & Guler, Huseyin, 2010. "Testing stochastic income convergence in seasonal heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 422-431, January.
  59. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387.
  60. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  61. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
  62. Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2011. "On LM‐type tests for seasonal unit roots in the presence of a break in trend," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 108-134, March.
  63. C. Wernerheim & M. Waples, 2013. "Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-181, June.
  64. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
  65. Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2001. "Seasonality and stock returns: some evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-481, December.
  66. Duffy, Martyn, 2003. "Advertising and food, drink and tobacco consumption in the United Kingdom: a dynamic demand system," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 51-70, January.
  67. Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 61-70, January.
  68. Tomas del Barrio Castro, 2007. "Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 910-922, November.
  69. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  70. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997. "The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
  71. Hahn Shik Lee & Eric Ghysels & William R. Bell, 2002. "Seasonal Time Series and Autocorrelation Function Estimation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(5), pages 651-665, September.
  72. Sandra G. Feltham & David E.A. Giles, 1999. "Testing for Unit Roots in Semi-Annual Data," Econometrics Working Papers 9912, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  73. Rotger, Gabriel Pons, "undated". "Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots with Temporally Aggregated Time Series," Economics Working Papers 2003-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  74. Kaili Shen & David Giles, 2006. "Rational exuberance at the mall: addiction to carrying a credit card balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 587-592.
  75. Crowder, William J., 1996. "The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 551-575, August.
  76. Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March.
  77. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  78. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
  79. Stephen Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2003. "Seasonal Unit Root Tests Based on Forward and Reverse Estimation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 441-460, July.
  80. Robert Taylor, 2005. "On the limiting behaviour of augmented seasonal unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-10.
  81. González-Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2023. "Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37968, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  82. Gregoir, Stephane, 2006. "Efficient tests for the presence of a pair of complex conjugate unit roots in real time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 45-100, January.
  83. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 1999. "Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 107-131, January.
  84. Caceres-Hernandez, Jose & Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria, 2015. "Splines and seasonal unit roots in weekly agricultural prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211380, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  85. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
  86. Denise Osborn & Paulo Rodrigues, 2002. "Asymptotic Distributions Of Seasonal Unit Root Tests: A Unifying Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 221-241.
  87. Domenico Depalo, 2009. "A seasonal unit-root test with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 422-438, September.
  88. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.
  90. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
  91. Shipra Banik & Param Silvapulle, 1999. "Testing for Seasonal Stability in Unemployment Series: International Evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 123-139, June.
  92. Duffy, Martyn, 2003. "On the estimation of an advertising-augmented, cointegrating demand system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 181-206, January.
  93. Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1997. "On the practical problems of computing seasonal unit root tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 307-318, September.
  94. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M., 2000. "A note on the application of the DF test to seasonal data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-175, April.
  95. Shigeyuki Hamori & Akira Tokihisa, 2002. "Some International Evidence on the Seasonality of Stock Prices," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(1), pages 79-86, April.
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