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Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals

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Cited by:

  1. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
  2. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
  3. Alexandr Patalaha & Maria A. Shchepeleva, 2023. "Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 43-60, December.
  4. Dufrénot, Gilles & Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2019. "Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 341-359.
  5. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IHEID Working Papers 18-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  6. Aparicio, Juan & Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana & Pastor, Jesus T., 2018. "Are charter value and supervision aligned? A segmentation analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-73.
  7. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  8. Gilles Dufrénot & Carolina Ulloa Suarez, 2019. "Public finance sustainability in Europe: a behavioral model," AMSE Working Papers 1929, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  9. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
  10. Sofiane El Ouardi, 2023. "Leading indicators of sovereign defaults in middle- and low-income countries: the role of foreign exchange reserve ratios in times of pandemic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 793-812.
  11. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(59), pages 6406-6443, December.
  12. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
  13. Waelchli Boris, 2016. "A proximity based macro stress testing framework," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, November.
  14. Tarika Sikarwar & Anivesh Goyal & Harshita Mathur, 2020. "Household Debt, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Growth of India: Is it Alarming for India?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 229-248, February.
  15. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret Onorato, 2016. "Power-Law Distribution in the Debt-to-Fiscal Revenue Ratio: Empirical Evidence and a Theoretical Model," AMSE Working Papers 1627, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  16. Carmine Gabriele, 2019. "Learning from trees: A mixed approach to building early warning systems for systemic banking crises," Working Papers 40, European Stability Mechanism.
  17. Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
  18. Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2021. "On using predictive-ability tests in the selection of time-series prediction models: A Monte Carlo evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 445-460.
  19. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  20. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  21. Mamdouh Abdelmoula M.Abdelsalam & Hany Abdel-Latif, 2020. "An optimal early warning system for currency crises under model uncertainty," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 99-107.
  22. Bolívar, Fernando & Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2023. "Business model contributions to bank profit performance: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  23. P. Manasse & R. Savona & M. Vezzoli, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Working Papers wp872, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  24. Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi & Devi Datt Tewari, 2021. "An Early Warning Signal (EWS) Model for Predicting Financial Crisis in Emerging African Economies," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 101-110, January.
  25. Doemeland,Doerte & Estevão,Marcello & Jooste,Charl & Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Tsiropoulos,Vasileios, 2022. "Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9929, The World Bank.
  26. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "Measuring financial soundness around the world: A machine learning approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  27. Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
  28. Gould, David M. & Melecky, Martin & Panterov, Georgi, 2016. "Finance, growth and shared prosperity: Beyond credit deepening," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 737-758.
  29. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Multidimensional Distance‐To‐Collapse Point And Sovereign Default Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 205-228, October.
  30. Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
  31. Salim Lahmiri, 2017. "A two‐step system for direct bank telemarketing outcome classification," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 49-55, January.
  32. Shchepeleva, Maria & Stolbov, Mikhail & Weill, Laurent, 2024. "Do sanctions trigger financial crises?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  33. Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, 2019. "Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/228, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
  35. Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasilis Siakoulis & Evangelos Stavroulakis, 2022. "Towards an early warning system for sovereign defaults leveraging on machine learning methodologies," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 118-129, April.
  36. Alex Lenkoski & Fredrik L. Aanes, 2020. "Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, May.
  37. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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