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Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say
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- Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015.
"Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
- Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
- Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012.
"On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
- Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
- Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts," Post-Print hal-00708542, HAL.
- Christian Pierdzioch & JanChristoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
- Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015.
"Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Post-Print hal-01411785, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Post-Print hal-01638223, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Post-Print hal-01411784, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers 2014-235, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Post-Print hal-01385957, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Post-Print hal-01638224, HAL.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003.
"Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
- Sophie Larribeau & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & R. Macdonald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations : how much heterogeneity ?," Post-Print halshs-00069655, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016.
"Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data,"
Post-Print
hal-01411824, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2017. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01589223, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01638220, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015.
"Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Ruelke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201202, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2010.
"Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts,"
Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 76(2), pages 195-217.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2010. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d’intérêt : une analyse des comportements d’experts," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2010024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt: une analyse des comportements d'experts," Post-Print halshs-00173105, HAL.
- Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
- Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013.
"Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411732, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01385855, HAL.
- Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011.
"Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2013.
"Currency forecast errors at times of low interest rates: evidence from survey data on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate,"
Working Papers
1321, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Frijns, Bart & Lehnert, Thorsten & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010.
"Behavioral heterogeneity in the option market,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2273-2287, November.
- Thorsten Lehnert & Bart Frijns & Remco Zwinkels, 2009. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in the Option Market," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-07, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
- Bart Frijns & Thorsten Lehnert & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2010. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the option market," Post-Print hal-00736742, HAL.
- Xiaohua Bao & Hailiang Huang & Larry D Qiu & Xiaozhuo Wang, 2022. "Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm-level evidence from China," Discussion Papers 2022-07, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009.
"Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?,"
Working Papers
2009_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo.
- Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
- King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013.
"The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
- Michael King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward," Working Papers 54, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange - Looking back and looking forward," Working Paper 2013/12, Norges Bank.
- Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 1044-1069, November.
- Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007.
"Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Thomas Oberlechner & Carol Osler, 2009. "Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Working Papers 02, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008.
"Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-376, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Ince, Onur & Molodtsova, Tanya, 2017. "Rationality and forecasting accuracy of exchange rate expectations: Evidence from survey-based forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 131-151.
- Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021.
"Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Cars H. Hommes & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2017. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Working Paper 2017/12, Norges Bank.
- Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
- Cavusoglu, Nevin & Goldberg, Michael D. & Stillwagon, Josh, 2021. "Currency returns and downside risk: Debt, volatility, and the gap from benchmark values," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
- Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "Testing the uncovered interest parity using traded volatility, a time-varying risk premium and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1168-1186, November.
- Afik, Zvika & Lahav, Yaron, 2015. "Thinking near and far: Modeling the formation of traders’ beliefs in asset markets using experimental data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 73-80.
- Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021.
"Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two-horizons framework," Post-Print hal-01828843, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Post-Print hal-03319099, HAL.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-25, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two-horizons framework," Post-Print hal-01828854, HAL.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
- Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.
- Lux, Thomas & Alfarano, Simone, 2016. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanisms," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-18.
- C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009.
"The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
- C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2007. "The Economics of Uncovered Interest Parity Condition for Emerging Markets: A Survey," Working Papers 2007/13, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Alper, C. Emre & Ardic, Oya Pinar & Fendoglu, Salih, 2007. "The Economics of Uncovered Interest Parity Condition for Emerging Markets: A Survey," MPRA Paper 4079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sebastian Heiden & Christian Klein & Bernhard Zwergel, 2013. "Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 558-578, June.
- Sulaiman Al-Jassar, 2019. "Fundamental and Technical Trading in the Emerging Market of an Oil-Based Economy," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-19, March.
- Öge Güney Pelin, 2018. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Turkish Evidence," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, August.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," Working Papers hal-04138546, HAL.
- Oberlechner, Thomas & Osler, Carol, 2012. "Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 91-113, February.
- Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013.
"Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
- Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Christian D. Dick & Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CESifo Working Paper Series 4181, CESifo.
- Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Forecast Errors about Persistently Trending Fundamentals," Working Papers 1501, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
- Beine, Michel, 2003.
"Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-80, March.
- Michel Beine, 2003. "Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10439, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008.
"Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-321, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Nevin Cavusoglu & Michael D. Goldberg & Joshua Stillwagon, 2019. "New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns," Working Papers Series 89, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
- Doron Sonsino & Tal Shavit, 2014. "Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 641-655, April.
- Steve Furnagiev & Josh Stillwagon, 2015. "Subjective Currency Risk Premia and Deviations from Moving Averages," Working Papers 1506, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
- Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010.
"The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The Use of Technical Analysis by Fund Managers: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-446, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
- Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
- Bernhard O. Ishioro, 2014. "The Dynamics Of Exchange Rate Expectations Formation: The Nigerian Perspective," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 23(2), pages 431-460, december.
- Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," Working Papers hal-04141409, HAL.
- Goldbaum, David & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "An empirical examination of heterogeneity and switching in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 667-684.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-10, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Does the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Expectation Formation in the Foreign Exchange Market? The Case of a Currency that is Pegged to a Basket," Working Papers 0219, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Jul 2002.