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Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War

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  1. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 671-684, November.
  3. Bruno S. Frey & Daniel Waldenstrom, 2007. "Using Financial Markets to Analyze History: The Case of the Second World War," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  4. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
  5. Noor Zahirah Mohd Sidek & Bhuk Kiranantawat & Martusorn Khaengkhan, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Trade: The Case for a Small Port," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
  6. Kyle C. Meng, 2017. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 748-784, March.
  7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
  8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  9. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Morelli, David & Uzan, Paola Sultana Renée, 2021. "Striking the implied volatility of US drone companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  10. Iqbal, Kazi & Tsubota, Kenmei & Shonchoy, Abu S & Hoque, Mainul, 2018. "Political instability and stock market returns : evidence from firm-level panel data of securities in Bangladesh," IDE Discussion Papers 712, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  11. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
  13. Yong Wang & Changyang Liu & Gaoyi Wang, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk Revealed in International Investment and World Trade," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 133-154, June.
  14. Wang, Xueting & Wang, Man & Wu, Haoran, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash Holdings in China: Precautionary motive and agency problem perspectives," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  15. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  16. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  17. Daniel Waldenstrom & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-27, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  18. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
  20. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  21. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Henrichsen, Aaron & Mulhair, Andrew, 2022. "The budgets of wars: Analysis of the U.S. defense stocks in the Post-Cold War era," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 335-346.
  22. Triki, Mohamed Bilel & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2021. "The GOLD market as a safe haven against the stock market uncertainty: Evidence from geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  23. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
  24. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Wang, Yonglei, 2017. "Hurting without hitting: The economic cost of political tension," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 106-124.
  25. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CAMA Working Papers 2011-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  26. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
  27. Nygaard, Knut & Sørensen, Lars Qvigstad, 2024. "Betting on war? Oil prices, stock returns, and extreme geopolitical events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  28. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  29. Haber, Stephen H & Weidenmier, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim & Mitchener, Kris, 2014. "Predicting Winners in Civil Wars," CEPR Discussion Papers 10109, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Amelie Brune & Thorsten Hens & Marc Rieger & Mei Wang, 2015. "The war puzzle: contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 1-21, March.
  31. Bocar A. Ba & Abdoulaye Ndiaye & Roman G. Rivera & Alexander Whitefield, 2024. "Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest," CESifo Working Paper Series 11264, CESifo.
  32. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.
  33. Zainudin, Ahmad Danial & Mohamad, Azhar, 2021. "Financial contagion in the futures markets amidst global geo-economic events," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 288-308.
  34. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  35. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
  36. Salma Zaiane & Fatma Ben Moussa, 2021. "What Drives Banking Profitability During Financial Crisis and Political Turmoil? Evidence from the MENA Region," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 380-407, September.
  37. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  38. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Iffat Ishrat Khan, 2024. "Reactions of Global Stock Markets to the Russia–Ukraine War: An Empirical Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 755-778, September.
  39. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  40. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
  41. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
  42. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
  43. Mitchener, Kris James & Oosterlinck, Kim & Weidenmier, Marc D. & Haber, Stephen, 2015. "Victory or repudiation? Predicting winners in civil wars using international financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 310-319.
  44. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2024. "What moves markets?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  45. Young Han Kim & Hosung Jung, 2014. "Investor Trading Behavior Around the Time of Geopolitical Risk Events: Evidence from South Korea," Working Papers 2014-10, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  46. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000427, UCLA Department of Economics.
  47. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Brendan John Lambe & Alexandra Dias, 2020. "The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 72-99, February.
  48. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.
  49. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
  50. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1579, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2007.
  51. Shashitha Gimhani Jayakody, 2017. "The Impact of the Sri Lankan Civil War on the Stock Market Performances," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 394-402.
  52. Bocar A. Ba & Abdoulaye Ndiaye & Roman G. Rivera & Alexander Whitefield, 2024. "Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 096, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  53. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  54. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
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