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National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the Euro Area

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Stefan Collignon, 2024. "The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, June.
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
  3. Victor Bystrov, 2018. "Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 333-353, December.
  4. Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "Interest rate uncertainty and the predictability of bank revenues," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1559-1569, December.
  5. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  6. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  8. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  9. Yudai Hatayama & Yuto Iwasaki & Kyoko Nakagami & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2024. "Globalization and Its Growing Impact on the Natural Rates of Interest in Developed Economies," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-13, Bank of Japan.
  10. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
  11. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
  12. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
  13. Pierre Jaillet & Benoît Mojon, 2018. "Les politiques d’objectifs des banques centrales en perspective," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 21-61.
  14. Jiaqian Chen & Daria Finocchiaro & Jesper Linde & Karl Walentin, 2023. "The costs of macroprudential deleveraging in a liquidity trap"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 991-1011, December.
  15. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  16. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
  17. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
  18. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nodari, Gabriela, 2018. "Risk management-driven policy rate gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 235-238.
  19. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Persistence of economic uncertainty: a comprehensive analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(41), pages 4477-4498, September.
  20. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
  21. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  22. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  23. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
  25. Semih Emre Çekin & Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson, 2021. "The Taylor curve: international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(40), pages 4680-4691, August.
  26. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
  27. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
  28. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  29. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
  30. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
  31. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  32. Tomas Reichenbachas & Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2021. "Natural real rates of interest across Euro area countries: Are R-stars getting closer together?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
  33. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy: interest rates and low inflation: A review of literature and methods," CAMA Working Papers 2017-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  34. Han, Fei, 2024. "The impact of demographic change on the natural rate of interest in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  35. Boris Hofmann & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Benoit Mojon & Athanasios Orphanides, 2021. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world," BIS Working Papers 954, Bank for International Settlements.
  36. Nguyen Ba Trung, 2022. "Output fluctuations and portfolio flows to emerging economies: The role of monetary uncertainty," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 285-295, December.
  37. Goodness C. Aye & Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on U.S. inequality: the role of uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 283-295, January.
  38. Jens H. E. Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working Paper Series 2024-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  39. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
  40. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
  41. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  42. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "The impact of uncertainty on the macro-financial linkage with international financial exposure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  43. Bulusu, Narayan & Guérin, Pierre, 2019. "What drives interbank loans? Evidence from Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-444.
  44. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  45. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
  46. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Jacobus A. Nel & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
  47. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  48. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
  49. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  50. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
  51. Jef Boeckx & Leonardo Iania & Joris Wauters, 2025. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 733-743.
  52. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
  53. Laurent FERRARA & Stéphane LHUISSIER & Fabien TRIPIER, 2018. "Uncertainty and macroeconomics: transmission channels and policy implications," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 61, April.
  54. Pelin Öge Güney, 2023. "Interest Rate Uncertainty and Macroeconomics in Turkey," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(2), pages 184-204.
  55. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  56. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and green investment decisions: A cross-national spillover perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  57. Francois Velde & Benoït Mojon & Magali Marx, 2016. "Why are real interest rates so low?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1581, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  58. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2024. "Heterogeneous beliefs with information processing capacity constraints and asset pricing in a monetary economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  59. Pikhart Zdeněk & Froňková Pavla, 2019. "Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 231-248, December.
  60. repec:ris:msuecw:2020_008 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  62. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2020. "Public Opinion on Central Banks when Economic Policy is Uncertain," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 283-306.
  64. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
  65. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
  66. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Mandaci, Pinar Evrim, 2023. "Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  67. Zahir Barahmand & Marianne S. Eikeland, 2022. "Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Cost Analysis through the Lens of Uncertainty: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
  68. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
  69. Pan, Zheyao & Chan, Kam Fong, 2018. "A new government bond volatility index predictor for the U.S. equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-215.
  70. Albert K. Tsui & Junxiang Wu & Zhaoyong Zhang & Zhongxi Zheng, 2023. "Forecasting term structure of the Japanese bond yields in the presence of a liquidity trap," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1205-1227, August.
  71. Beckmann, Joscha, 2021. "Measurement and effects of euro/dollar exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 773-790.
  72. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  73. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Chen, Zhongfei & Chortareas, Georgios & Li, Kexin, 2023. "Global economic policy Uncertainty, gross capital Inflows, and the mitigating role of Macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  74. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
  75. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  76. Kavanagh, Ella & Zhu, Sheng & O’Sullivan, Niall, 2022. "Monetary policy, trade-offs and the transmission of UK Monetary Policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1128-1147.
  77. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
  78. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
  79. B. De Backer & J. Wauters, 2017. "The cyclical and structural determinants of the low interest rate environment," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 69-86, september.
  80. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
  81. repec:ris:msuecw:2019_002 is not listed on IDEAS
  82. Tibor Hledik & Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Quantifying the Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy - The Czech Case," Working Papers 2018/7, Czech National Bank.
  83. Ruipeng Liu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2021. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rate Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility: A Forecasting Perspective," Working Papers 202178, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  84. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Oktay Özkan, 2022. "Is interest rate uncertainty a predictor of investment volatility? evidence from the wild bootstrap likelihood ratio approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 507-521, July.
  85. Matthew W Clance & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei, 2020. "Predicting firm-level volatility in the United States: the role of monetary policy uncertainty," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 167-177.
  86. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
  87. Magdalene Williams & Ahmad Abu Alrub & Mehmet Aga, 2022. "Ecological Footprint, Economic Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa: Evidence From Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
  88. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
  89. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  90. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
  91. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2019. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Volatility Jumps in Advanced Equity Markets," Working Papers 201939, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  92. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
  93. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2020. "Equilibrium real interest rates and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for Euro area member countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 357-366.
  94. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  95. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.
  96. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries," KAE Working Papers 2023-093, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  97. Eric Jondeau & Benoit Mojon & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Bank Funding Cost and Liquidity Supply Regimes," BIS Working Papers 854, Bank for International Settlements.
  98. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
  99. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2023. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  100. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
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