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Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters

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Cited by:

  1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
  2. Laurini Márcio Poletti, 2013. "A Hybrid Data Cloning Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 193-229, May.
  3. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  4. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
  5. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2019. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 621-640, August.
  6. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2021. "A new approach to measuring economic policy shocks, with an application to conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1085-1138, November.
  7. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.
  8. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
  9. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  10. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  11. Molenaars, Tomas K. & Reinerink, Nick H. & Hemminga, Marcus A., 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve - Forecast performance of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model from 1971 to 2008," MPRA Paper 61862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
  13. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  14. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
  15. M�rcio Poletti Laurini, 2014. "Dynamic functional data analysis with non-parametric state space models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 142-163, January.
  16. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
  17. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
  18. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  19. David Ardia & Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 2013. "Cross-Sectional Distribution of GARCH Coefficients across S&P 500 Constituents: Time-Variation over the Period 2000-2012," Cahiers de recherche 1313, CIRPEE.
  20. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
  21. Choi, Ahjin & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2023. "Modeling the time-varying dynamic term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  22. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
  24. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  25. Lajos Horváth & Zhenya Liu & Curtis Miller & Weiqing Tang, 2024. "Breaks in term structures: Evidence from the oil futures markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2317-2341, April.
  26. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
  27. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
  28. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
  29. Luo, Deqing & Pang, Tao & Xu, Jiawen, 2021. "Forecasting U.S. Yield Curve Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model with Random Level Shift Parameters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 340-350.
  30. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  31. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  32. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
  33. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  34. Wali Ullah, 2017. "Term structure forecasting in affine framework with time-varying volatility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(3), pages 453-483, August.
  35. Peter Exterkate & Dick Van Dijk & Christiaan Heij & Patrick J. F. Groenen, 2013. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data‐Rich Environment Using the Factor‐Augmented Nelson–Siegel Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 193-214, April.
  36. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
  37. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2023. "Dynamic Nelson–Siegel model for market risk estimation of bonds: Practical implementation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 5-27.
  38. Rui Hua & Wenzhe Hu & Xiuju Zhao, 2020. "Research on RMB exchange rate forecast based on the neural network model and the Nelson–Siegel model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 219-237, September.
  39. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
  40. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
  41. Ourania Theodosiadou & George Tsaklidis, 2017. "Estimating the Positive and Negative Jumps of Asset Returns Via Kalman Filtering. The Case of Nasdaq Index," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1123-1134, December.
  42. Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez‐Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2015. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 987-1009, September.
  43. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 0000. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Sep 2010.
  44. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  45. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Common Faith or Parting Ways? A Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 539-565, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  46. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
  47. González-Sánchez, Mariano, 2018. "Causality in the EMU sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 281-290.
  48. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & Daniela Kubudi & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2018. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33.
  49. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.
  50. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Liesenfeld, Roman & Moura, Guilherme Valle & Oglend, Atle, 2022. "Analyzing Commodity Futures Using Factor State-Space Models with Wishart Stochastic Volatility," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 105-127.
  51. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  52. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  53. Niels S. Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2013. "Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  54. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
  55. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  56. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  57. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
  58. Geert Mesters & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman, 2014. "A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-071/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  59. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
  60. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  61. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2015. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model: do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 876-904, April.
  62. Polychronis Manousopoulos & Michalis Michalopoulos, 2015. "Term structure of interest rates estimation using rational Chebyshev functions," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 119-146, October.
  63. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
  64. Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman & Julia Schaumburg, 2021. "Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-056/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  65. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2020. "Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, August.
  66. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon & Wenying Yao & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," Working Papers No 06/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  67. Takamizawa, Hideyuki & 高見澤, 秀幸, 2015. "Impact of No-arbitrage on Interest Rate Dynamics," Working Paper Series G-1-5, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
  68. Dang-Nguyen, Stéphane & Le Caillec, Jean-Marc & Hillion, Alain, 2014. "The deterministic shift extension and the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 402-417.
  69. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.
  70. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-75, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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