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Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  2. Elena Andreou, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 290-318.
  3. Massacci, Daniele & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting in factor augmented regressions under structural change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 62-76.
  4. Londoño Yarce, Juan Miguel & Regúlez Castillo, Marta & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2014. "An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  5. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
  6. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.
  7. Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July.
  8. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  9. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
  10. Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228.
  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  12. Granger, Clive W.J. & Machina, Mark J., 2006. "Structural attribution of observed volatility clustering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 15-29.
  13. Abhimanyu Gupta & Myung Hwan Seo, 2023. "Robust Inference on Infinite and Growing Dimensional Time‐Series Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1333-1361, July.
  14. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
  15. Londono, Juan M. & Regúlez, Marta & Vázquez, Jesús, 2015. "An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 291-307.
  16. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
  17. Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 693-708, August.
  18. Pietro Veronesi, "undated". "Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-Uncertainty and Asset Prices,”," CRSP working papers 529, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  19. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
  20. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús & Regúlez Castillo, Marta & Londoño Yarce, Juan Miguel, 2008. "Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach," DFAEII Working Papers 2008-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  21. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376, March.
  22. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.
  23. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.
  24. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  25. Christian Pierdzioch & Daniel Hartmann, 2013. "Forecasting Eurozone real-estate returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1185-1196, July.
  26. Hyein Shim & Hyeyoen Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2016. "Testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis: the case of Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(25), pages 2383-2395, May.
  27. Kelly David L. & Steigerwald Douglas G, 2004. "Private Information and High-Frequency Stochastic Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, March.
  28. Xue, Yi & Gençay, Ramazan, 2012. "Trading frequency and volatility clustering," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 760-773.
  29. Jean-Marie Dufour & Richard Luger, 2017. "Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov switching in autoregressive models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 713-727, October.
  30. Guidolin, Massimo & Wang, Kai, 2023. "The empirical performance of option implied volatility surface-driven optimal portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
  31. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, August.
  32. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
  33. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
  34. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2007:i:15:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2021. "Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers Series inetwp172, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  36. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
  37. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Forecasting in the presence of level shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 557-574.
  38. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  39. Smith Aaron, 2012. "Markov Breaks in Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, May.
  40. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 468-480, June.
  41. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-Varying VAR," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  42. Guidolin, Massimo, 2003. "International asset prices and portfolio choices under Bayesian learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 383-437, December.
  43. Matei Demetrescu, 2007. "Volatility Clustering in High-Frequency Data: A self-fulfilling prophecy?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(15), pages 1-8.
  44. Yang Lu & Michael Siemer, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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