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Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Suryadeepto Nag & Sankarshan Basu & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Modeling the Commodity Prices of Base Metals in Indian Commodity Market Using a Higher Order Markovian Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 159-171, March.
  2. Dannenberg, Henry & Ehrenfeld, Wilfried, 2010. "Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  3. Na Jin & Sergio Lence & Chad Hart & Dermot Hayes, 2012. "The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 718-735.
  4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
  5. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
  6. Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, and Sebastien McMahon, 2015. "The Convenience Yield and the Informational Content of the Oil Futures Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  7. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
  8. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2024. "Regime‐dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2822-2847, November.
  9. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
  10. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
  12. Wen, Shaobo & An, Haizhong & Chen, Zhihua & Liu, Xueyong, 2017. "Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 299-308.
  13. Sebastian Ernst Volkmann & Felix Lehnen & Peter A. Kukla, 2019. "Estimating the economics of a mining project on seafloor manganese nodules," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 287-306, November.
  14. Alon Dourban & Liron Yedidsion, 2017. "Optimal Purchasing Policy For Mean-Reverting Items in a Finite Horizon," Papers 1711.03188, arXiv.org.
  15. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Esen, Ömer, 2020. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between oil prices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  16. Hao Sun & Bo Yu, 2020. "Forecasting Financial Returns Volatility: A GARCH-SVR Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 451-471, February.
  17. Dominik Boos, 2024. "Risky times: Seasonality and event risk of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 767-783, May.
  18. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chen, Ting-Fu, 2020. "Impact of volatility jumps in a mean-reverting model: Derivative pricing and empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  19. Ke Tang, 2012. "Time-varying long-run mean of commodity prices and the modeling of futures term structures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 781-790, April.
  20. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
  21. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1245-1273, November.
  22. Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
  23. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
  24. Xiaoying Huang, 2017. "A Double-Exponential Jump model and its application to risk measure in Wheat spot market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1298-1309.
  25. Armstrong, Margaret & Langrené, Nicolas & Petter, Renato & Chen, Wen & Petter, Carlos, 2019. "Accounting for tailings dam failures in the valuation of mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  26. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
  27. Gabriel J. Power & John R. C. Robinson, 2013. "Commodity futures price volatility, convenience yield and economic fundamentals," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1089-1095, July.
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