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Modeling the commodity prices of base metals in Indian commodity market using a Higher Order Markovian Approach

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  • Suryadeepto Nag
  • Sankarshan Basu
  • Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

Abstract

A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model to capture the dynamics of commodity prices is proposed as an alternative to a Markovian model. In particular, the order of the former model, is taken to be the delay, in the response of the industry, to the market information. This is then empirically analyzed for the prices of Copper Mini and four other bases metals, namely Aluminum, Lead, Nickel and Zinc, in the Indian commodities market. In case of Copper Mini, the usage of the HOM approach consistently offer improvement, over the Markovian approach, in terms of the errors in forecasting. Similar trends were observed for the other base metals considered, with the exception of Aluminum, which can be attributed the volatility in the Asian market during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Suryadeepto Nag & Sankarshan Basu & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2020. "Modeling the commodity prices of base metals in Indian commodity market using a Higher Order Markovian Approach," Papers 2010.03350, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2010.03350
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008. "Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
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    7. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-86, March.
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    Cited by:

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    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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