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The Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure

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  • Peter A.G. VanBergeijk
  • Jan Marc Berk

Abstract

An empirical investigation of the term structure (the relation of the long interest rate to the short interest rate) showed structural change as the deadline for the euro became closer. Our empirical analysis of the term structures (yield curves) in 12 OECD countries uncovers that econometrically estimated behavioural equations for most EMU countries were stable even in the light of the creation of the euro. This finding would seem to defy the Lucas Critique. However, the significant structural instability found for the euro area's core country Germany suggests that the Lucas Critique is relevant in the analysis of the impact of the creation (and future extensions) of EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A.G. VanBergeijk & Jan Marc Berk, "undated". "The Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure," IEW - Working Papers 082, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:082
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    File URL: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51983/1/iewwp082.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-215, May.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk & Ron J. Berndsen & W. J. Jansen (ed.), 2000. "The Economics of the Euro Area," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1859.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2003. "Money and the Gains from Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 263-297, February.
    2. Reto Foellmi & Urs Meister, 2005. "Product-Market Competition in the Water Industry: Voluntary Non-discriminatory Pricing," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 115-135, June.
    3. Willem J.H. van Groenendaal, 2011. "Energy Model and Policy Advice: The Effect of Model Choice," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    5. Aleksander Berentsen & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2004. "Money and Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(4), pages 915-944.
    6. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    7. Berentsen, Aleksander & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary exchange: how divisibility of money matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1621-1649, November.
    8. Rasmus Kattai, 2004. "Analyzing the Suitability of the Currency Board Arrangement for Estonia’s Accession to the EMU," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Tiiu Paas & Egle Tafenau (ed.), Modelling the Economies of the Baltic Sea Region, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 167-205, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lucas Critique; Monetary Union; Term Structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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