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Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models

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  • Schüler, Martin
  • Schröder, Michael

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the Europe-wide systemic risk in banking. We employ a bivariate GARCH model to estimate conditional correlations between European bank stock indices. These correlations are used as an indication for the interdependencies amongst the banking business in Europe and hence for the systemic risk potential. We employ several tests to assess the development of systemic risk: a non-parametric test of constancy of the correlation, a test of parallel shifts in the correlation at pre-specified events, and a test for a linear time trend in the correlations. The results show that many of the conditional correlations exhibit an upward move in the last years. This is an indication that the economic factors determining the European banking business have become more similar and that the systemic risk potential has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Schüler, Martin & Schröder, Michael, 2003. "Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-11, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:956
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    Cited by:

    1. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2014. "Has the global banking system become more fragile over time?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 202-213.
    2. Schüler, Martin, 2003. "How Do Banking Supervisors Deal with Europe-wide Systemic Risk?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-03, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    4. Schüler, Martin, 2003. "Incentive Problems in Banking Supervision: The European Case," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-62, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Song, Wenjuan & Sun, Lixin, 2014. "The Measurement of the Long-Term and Short-Term Risks of Chinese Listed Banks," MPRA Paper 70007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; banking; contagion; Europe; bivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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