IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp635.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Snower, Dennis J.

    (Hertie School of Governance)

  • Karanassou, Marika

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

The paper examines how the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff depends on the degree to which wage-price decisions are backward- versus forward-looking. When economic agents, facing time-contingent, staggered nominal contracts, have a positive rate of time preference, the current wage and price levels depend more heavily on past variables (e.g. past wages and prices) than on future variables. Consequently, the long-run Phillips curve becomes downward-sloping and, indeed, quit flat for plausible parameter values. This paper provides an intuitive account of how this long-run Phillips curve arises.

Suggested Citation

  • Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 635, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp635.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 646, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    5. Ascari, Guido, 2000. "Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 664-686, July.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2002. "Staggered wages and output dynamics under disinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 653-680, April.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    10. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 405-433, March.
    11. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    14. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    16. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    17. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    2. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Amber, 2011. "The South Asian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Gordon Triangle," MPRA Paper 34734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    3. Fitzenberger Bernd & Franz Wolfgang & Bode Oliver, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 465-496, October.
    4. Łukasz Arendt, 2005. "Próba oszacowania NAIRU dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 1-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    3. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," Working Papers 478, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics: The Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-300.
    5. Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 635, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Snower, Dennis & Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2003. "The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Inflation persistence and the Philips curve revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1349, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    10. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," Working Papers 586, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    11. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    12. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Ball, Laurence & Gregory Mankiw, N. & Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Monetary policy for inattentive economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 703-725, May.
    16. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2012. "Productivity Growth And The Phillips Curve: A Reassessment Of The Us Experience," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 344-366, July.
    17. Latsos Sophia, 2018. "Real Wage Effects of Japan’s Monetary Policy," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 177-215, July.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2002_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    20. Leong, Kenneth, 2002. "Reconciling the new keynesian model with observed persistence," Research Discussion Papers 19/2002, Bank of Finland.
    21. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation-unemployment tradeoff; wage-price staggering; monetary policy; forward- and backward-looking wage-price behavior; traditional and New Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.