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Der Einfluss der Entschuldung auf die Aktienmärkte: Eine Analyse des Einflusses und der Herausforderungen für Investoren

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  • Peter, Manuel

Abstract

Die enorme Verschuldung der US-amerikanischen Haushalte in den ersten Jahren des Millenniums wird zumeist als eine Ursache für die Finanzkrise nach 2007 angesehen. Unterstützt durch die Politik, die möglichst vielen Haushalten zu einer Immobilie verhelfen sollte, erlebten die USA einen historischen Anstieg der privaten Verschuldung. Doch auch in anderen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften schwoll die private Verschuldung deutlich an. In vielen Fällen zeigte sich die Verschuldung als nicht nachhaltig, so dass in den Jahren nach der Finanzkrise eine Entschuldung notwendig schien. Ältere Studien wiesen bereits auf den Einfluss solcher gesamtgesellschaftlicher Kreditdynamiken auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung hin. Es ist daher anzunehmen, dass auch die Finanz- und im Speziellen die Aktienmärkte durch ihre enge Verbindung mit dem Konjunkturverlauf vom sog. "Kreditzyklus" nicht unberührt bleiben. Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier untersucht diesen Aspekt, indem es Aktienmarktkrisen mit und ohne Entschuldungsentwicklungen seit 1870 vergleicht. Zudem arbeitet das Arbeitspapier heraus, inwieweit unterschiedliche Branchenindizes unterschiedlich stark von Entschuldungsentwicklungen betroffen sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter, Manuel, 2016. "Der Einfluss der Entschuldung auf die Aktienmärkte: Eine Analyse des Einflusses und der Herausforderungen für Investoren," Arbeitspapiere 171, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wwuifg:171
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