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On the determinants of NPLS: lessons from Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Evangelos Charalambakis

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Yiannis Dendramis

    (University of Cyprus)

  • Elias Tzavalis

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between non-performing loans (NPLs) and their fundamentals, mainly bank and macroeconomic variables. This is done based on aggregate portfolio loans in the Greek economy. Greece constitutes an interesting case to study the factors determining NPLs, given the pervasive recessionary conditions that have characterized it since the outbreak of its sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We suggest a new econometric framework to study the above relationship which extends the SUR (seemingly unrelated regressions) framework to allow for a common break in its slope coefficient of unknown date. We show that the deterioration in the macroeconomic conditions (captured by very high rates of unemployment) and political uncertainty constitute key factors explaining the sharp rise of NPLs of the Greek banking sector after the first quarter of 2012. With the exception of bank profitability, we find that bank specific variables associated with bank capitalization and liquidity risk seem to determine NPLs only under normal economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Evangelos Charalambakis & Yiannis Dendramis & Elias Tzavalis, 2017. "On the determinants of NPLS: lessons from Greece," Working Papers 220, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Dimitrios, Anastasiou & Helen, Louri & Mike, Tsionas, 2016. "Determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from Euro-area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 116-119.
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    4. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
    6. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    8. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    9. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    10. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    2. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Dendramis, Y. & Tzavalis, E. & Varthalitis, P. & Athanasiou, E., 2020. "Predicting default risk under asymmetric binary link functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1039-1056.
    4. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Kolliopoulos, Athanasios, 2021. "Reforming the Greek financial system: a decade of failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108523, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2020. "Non-performing loans in the euro area: Does bank market power matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Athanasios Kolliopoulos, 2021. "Reforming the Greek Financial System: a decade of failure," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 155, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    8. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2019. "Non-performing loans in the euro area: does market power matter?," Working Papers 271, Bank of Greece.
    9. Dendramis, Y. & Tzavalis, E. & Adraktas, G., 2018. "Credit risk modelling under recessionary and financially distressed conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 160-175.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NPLs; break point; bank-specific variables; macroeconomic conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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