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Forecast Revisions in the Presence of News: A Lab Investigation

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  • Lustenhouwer, Joep
  • Salle, Isabelle

Abstract

We conduct a laboratory experiment in a fully-fledged macroeconomic model where participants receive information about future government spending shocks and are tasked with repeatedly forecasting output over a given horizon. By eliciting several-period-head predictions, we investigate forecast reaction to news and revision. The lab forecasts are consistent with stylized facts on reaction to news established in the survey literature. We find that subjects steadily learn the magnitude of the effect of the shocks on output, albeit not to full extent. We further find little support for fully backward-looking expectations. We rationalize the experimental data in the context of a Bayesian updating model, which provides a better description of the behaviors in longer-horizon environments and among more attentive and experienced subjects.
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  • Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2023. "Forecast Revisions in the Presence of News: A Lab Investigation," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277668, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277668
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    3. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2017. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Discussion Papers dp17-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    5. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    6. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    9. Chen, Daniel L. & Schonger, Martin & Wickens, Chris, 2016. "oTree—An open-source platform for laboratory, online, and field experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 88-97.
    10. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    11. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    12. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
    13. Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Comment on “No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations” by Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 57-61.
    14. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
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    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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