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Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

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  • Lütkepohl, Helmut
  • Schlaak, Thore

Abstract

In proxy vector autoregressive models, the structural shocks of interest are identified by an instrument. Although heteroskedasticity is occasionally allowed for in inference, it is typically taken for granted that the impact effects of the structural shocks are time-invariant despite the change in their variances. We develop a test for this implicit assumption and present evidence that the assumption of time-invariant impact effects may be violated in previously used empirical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2021. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242399, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242399
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed? Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-03, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    2. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2022. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions: Testing for Time-Varying Impulse Responses in the Presence of Multiple Proxies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2005, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR Models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Papers 2111.00450, arXiv.org.
    5. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2024. "Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2084, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Fengler, Matthias & Polivka, Jeanine, 2022. "Identifying Structural Shocks to Volatility through a Proxy-MGARCH Model," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264010, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2023. "Have the effects of shocks to oil price expectations changed?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2024. "Heteroskedastic proxy vector autoregressions: An identification-robust test for time-varying impulse responses in the presence of multiple proxies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Lukas Boer & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2020. "A Simple Instrument for Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1905, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Martin Bruns & Sascha A. Keweloh, 2023. "Testing for Strong Exogeneity in Proxy-VARS," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; proxy VAR; identification throughheteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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