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On Time-Varying VAR models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yayi Yan
  • Jiti Gao
  • Bin Peng

Abstract

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new class of time-varying VAR models in which the coefficients and covariance matrix of the error innovations are allowed to change smoothly over time. Accordingly, we establish a set of theories, including the impulse responses analyses subject to both of the short-run timing and the long-run restrictions, an information criterion to select the optimal lag, and a Wald-type test to determine the constant coefficients. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the theoretical findings. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical relevance and usefulness of the proposed methods through an application to the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2021-17
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    File URL: https://www.monash.edu/business/ebs/research/publications/ebs/wp17-2021.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multivariate dynamic time series; time-varying impulse response; testing for parameter stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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