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Disentangling the Information and Forward Guidance Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements on the Economy

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  • Other, Lars

Abstract

When monetary policy announcements not only induce market participants to update their expectations about the future path of monetary policy but also about economic prospects, the identification of exogenous monetary policy shocks becomes challenging. Taking into account an information effect regarding economic prospects, this paper presents a novel strategy to decompose the information content of central bank announcements. Based on a formally derived prediction of the standard New Keynesian model, the identifying assumption reads that the information effect should be correlated with movements in 5-Year, 5-Year breakeven inflation rates on announcement days. Separating distinct dimensions of monetary policy with a clear structural interpretation, the effects of monetary policy announcements on the macroeconomy are investigated using a vector autoregression identified with external instruments. My results highlight the effectiveness of forward guidance in influencing output.

Suggested Citation

  • Other, Lars, 2018. "Disentangling the Information and Forward Guidance Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements on the Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181540, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181540
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    1. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Shocks; High-Frequency Identification; Forward Guidance; Central Bank Information; Proxy VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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