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Forward Guidance in a Simple Model with a Zero Lower Bound

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  • Illing, Gerhard
  • Siemsen, Thomas

Abstract

In this paper we present a simple framework to model central bank forward guidance in a liquidity trap. We analyze the role of long-run and short-run price stickiness under discretion and commitment in a straightforward and intuitive way. Despite the impact of price rigidity on welfare being non-linear, losses under discretion are lowest with perfectly flexible prices. We show why the zero lower bound may still be binding even long after the shock has gone and characterize conditions when a commitment to hold nominal rates at zero for an extended period is optimal. We then introduce government spending and show that under persistently low policy rates optimal government spending becomes more front-loaded, while pro-cyclical austerity fares worse than discretionary government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Illing, Gerhard & Siemsen, Thomas, 2014. "Forward Guidance in a Simple Model with a Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100346
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2017. "Explaining Inflation with a Classical Dichotomy Model and Switching Monetary Regimes: Mexico 1932-2013," Working Papers 2017-20, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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