IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc11/48711.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Dreger, Christian

Abstract

In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries did not receive much attention so far. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency. In this paper, the imbalances are traced back to catching up and competitiveness factors using paneleconometric techniques. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, low income countries tend to run deficits, while rich countries realize surpluses. However, the effect diminishes, if early years are dropped from the sample. The competitiveness channel is more robust and shows the expected sign, i.e. real appreciation leads to external deficits. To restore competitiveness, a reduction of unit labour costs is on the agenda. Since a deterioration of competitiveness is not a feasible strategy for the surplus countries, an asymmetric response across countries is required in order to reduce the imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48711, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/48711/1/VfS_2011_pid_218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Philip R. Lane, 2010. "International Financial Integration and the External Positions of Euro Area Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 830, OECD Publishing.
    3. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    4. Michael G. Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 747-764, September.
    5. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    7. Sebastian Barnes & Jeremy Lawson & Artur Radziwill, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Comparative Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 826, OECD Publishing.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2010/121, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    11. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    12. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    13. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    14. Michael G Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2007. "Real exchange rates and current account imbalances in the Euro-area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 124, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    16. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1140-1174, September.
    17. Holinski, N. & Kool, C.J.M. & Muysken, J., 2010. "Origins of persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    18. Martin, Feldstein, 2011. "The role of currency realignments in eliminating the US and China current account imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 731-736, September.
    19. Mr. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/226, International Monetary Fund.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    21. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2005. "Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 77-91, January.
    22. Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2010/139, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    25. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    26. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    27. repec:zbw:rwirep:0176 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Clovis Kerdrain & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner, 2010. "The Impact of Structural Policies on Saving, Investment and Current Accounts," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 815, OECD Publishing.
    29. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2010. "After the Crisis: Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?," IMF Working Papers 2010/011, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    31. Spaventa, Luigi & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2010. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    33. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
    34. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schmitz, Birgit, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching up Explain the Development?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 6-17, February.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0241 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0241, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    6. Giuseppe Caivano & Nicola D. Coniglio, 2016. "Long-Run Drivers of Current Account Imbalances in the EU: the Role of Trade Openness," SERIES 03-2016, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2016.
    7. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos, 2014. "Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 210-233, April.
    9. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    10. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    11. Nieminen, Mika, 2015. "Trade imbalances within the euro area and with respect to the rest of the world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 306-314.
    12. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    13. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    14. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/45, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, February.
    16. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    17. Chuku Chuku & Atan Johnson & Obioesio Felix & Onye Kenneth, 2017. "Working Paper 287 - Current Account Adjustments and Integration in West Africa," Working Paper Series 2407, African Development Bank.
    18. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Persistence of Current-account Disequilibria and Real Exchange-rate Misalignments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 137-159, February.
    20. Vishal Jaunky, 2013. "Democracy and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 987-1008, October.
    21. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account imbalances; catching up and competitiveness; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.