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The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

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  • Li, Yuan
  • Bolton, Kierstin
  • Westphal, Theo

Abstract

"One Belt, One Road" is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries´ trade patterns with railway connections to China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China´s exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment, and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China´s imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yuan & Bolton, Kierstin & Westphal, Theo, 2016. "The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe," Working Papers on East Asian Studies 109/2016, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of East Asian Studies IN-EAST.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:udedao:1092016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Dulani Seneviratne & Ms. Yan M Sun, 2013. "Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN-5: What are the Links?," IMF Working Papers 2013/041, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chu Ping Lo, 2018. "China's New Silk Road and China-EU Trade," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 683-701, November.
    2. Richard Pomfret, "undated". "The Eurasian Land Bridge: The Role of Service Providers in Linking the Regional Value Chains in East Asia and the European Union," Working Papers DP-2018-01, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Richard Pomfret, 2017. "Improved Infrastructure and Agricultural Exports from Central Asia," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 19(1), pages 35-57.
    4. Victor Sadovnichii & Gennady Osipov & Askar Akaev & Artemy Malkov & Sergey Shulgin, 2018. "Socio-Economic Effectiveness of the Development of the Railway Network in Siberia and the Far East: Mathematical Simulation and Forecast," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 758-777.
    5. Chen Shen, 2023. "The Impact of Infrastructure Development on China–ASEAN Trade-Evidence from ASEAN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Ling Fang & Martin Kleimann & Yuan Li & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2019. "The Implications of the New Silk Road Railways on Local Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 7923, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    One Belt; One Road; trade; transportation cost; weapons of the rich; everyday forms of policy influence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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