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Optimism, pessimism and the unforeseen: Modelling an endogenous business cycle driven by strong beliefs

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.

Abstract

Indicators of trust, confidence, optimism or sentiment among consumers and/or investors, are published continuously in the mass media. More importantly, these indices seem not only to reflect how the state of the real economy is perceived by private agents, but can also help predict the future course of the business cycle. Moreover, in econometric analyses they have even been found to cause business activity. In this paper, we first make an attempt to clear all of the above mentioned notions and to interpret their economic content. We thus intend to provide a theoretical foundation for how pessimism and optimism, in conjunction with estimation errors committed by private agents, can drive the real economy. Furthermore, the model presented is capable of incorporating the revision of expectations of private agents through Bayesian updating, to create a fully endogenized business cycle. The results achieved in simulation experiments confirm the possibility of constant, rising and declining oscillations in the growth rate of consumption and income.

Suggested Citation

  • Sell, Friedrich L., 2002. "Optimism, pessimism and the unforeseen: Modelling an endogenous business cycle driven by strong beliefs," Working Papers in Economics 2002,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Delorme & David Kamerschen & Lisa Ford Voeks, 2001. "Consumer confidence and rational expectations in the United States compared with the United Kingdom," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 863-869.
    2. Maa[beta], Henrich & Sell, Friedrich L., 1998. "Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 519-541, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Rational Beliefs; Bayesian Updating; Consumer Behaviour; Konjunkturzyklus; Rationale Überzeugung; Bayesianisches Lernen; Konsumverhalten;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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