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The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production

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  • Broll, Udo
  • Wong, Kit Pong

Abstract

This note examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, the firm optimally opts for an overhedge if the firm's coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater than unity. Furthermore, banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take in inflation seriously.

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2014. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0214
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kit Pong Wong, 2012. "Production and hedging under state‐dependent preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 945-963, October.
    2. Cuadras, C. M., 2002. "On the Covariance between Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 19-27, April.
    3. repec:bla:rdevec:v:5:y:2001:i:3:p:355-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "A Note on Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi‐Country Case," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(12), pages 1191-1196, December.
    5. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    6. Harald L. Battermann & Udo Broll, 2001. "Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 355-362, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward markets; Expectation dependence; Inflation risk; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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