IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v14y2015i1p65-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production

Author

Listed:
  • Udo Broll
  • Kit Wong

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, we show that the firm optimally opts for an over-hedge (under-hedge) if the firm’s coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater (no smaller) than unity. We show further that banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take inflation seriously. Copyright ISEG 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Udo Broll & Kit Wong, 2015. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 14(1), pages 65-73, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:65-73
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-015-0109-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10258-015-0109-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10258-015-0109-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.
    2. Cuadras, C. M., 2002. "On the Covariance between Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 19-27, April.
    3. Kit Pong Wong, 2012. "Production and hedging under state‐dependent preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 945-963, October.
    4. Li, Jingyuan, 2011. "The demand for a risky asset in the presence of a background risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 372-391, January.
    5. repec:bla:rdevec:v:5:y:2001:i:3:p:355-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    7. Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "A Note on Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi‐Country Case," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(12), pages 1191-1196, December.
    8. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    9. Harald L. Battermann & Udo Broll, 2001. "Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 355-362, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Kit Pong, 2017. "Production and hedging under state-dependent preferences and background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 527-534.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2014. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Kit Wong, 2014. "Hedging and the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 329-340, October.
    3. Kit Wong, 2014. "Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 413-421, October.
    4. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.
    5. Wong, Kit Pong, 2017. "Production and hedging under state-dependent preferences and background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 527-534.
    6. Kit Pong Wong, 2022. "Production and hedging under correlated price and background risks," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 241-256, June.
    7. Li, Jingyuan & Liu, Dongri & Wang, Jianli, 2016. "Risk aversion with two risks: A theoretical extension," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 100-105.
    8. Wong, Kit Pong, 2013. "Fixed versus variable rate loans under state-dependent preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 659-663.
    9. Park, Timothy A. & Antonovitz, Frances, 1991. "Econometric Tests Of Firm Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Optimal Output And Hedging Decisions," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35698, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Wong, Kit Pong, 2021. "Comparative risk aversion with two risks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Kit Pong Wong, 2003. "Forward Markets and the Behaviour of the Competitive Firm with Production Flexibility," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 303-310, July.
    13. Adam-Muller, Axel F. A., 1997. "Export and hedging decisions under revenue and exchange rate risk: A note," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1421-1426, July.
    14. Safra, Zvi & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1986. "Firm's hedging behavior without the expected utility hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-148.
    15. Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-468, June.
    16. Inmaculada Rodríguez-Puerta & Alberto Álvarez-López, 2016. "Optimal allocation of a fixed production under price uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 121-142, February.
    17. Philippe Bontems & Celine Nauges, 2018. "Production choices with water markets and risk aversion: the role of initial allocations and forward trading," Post-Print hal-02349932, HAL.
    18. Robison, Lindon J. & Hanson, Steven D., 1995. "Analyzing Firm Response to Risk Using Mean-Variance Models," Staff Paper Series 201207, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    19. Dionne, Georges & Santugini, Marc, 2014. "Entry, imperfect competition, and futures market for the input," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 70-83.
    20. Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Production decisions in the presence of options: A note," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 17-25, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward hedging; Expectation dependence; Inflation risk; Production; D21; D24; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:65-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.