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A note on the synchronisation of the natural rates of interest in Germany and the Euro Area

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  • Berger, Tino
  • Ochsner, Christian

Abstract

The European Central Bank (ECB) strives to maintain inflation at a 2% target rate, yet the Euro area's diverse economies pose challenges to achieving this goal with a single nominal interest rate. Effective monetary policy transmission hinges on synchronizing the Natural Rate of Interest (NRI) across constituent economies. This note investigates NRI synchronization between Germany, the largest Euro area economy, and the entire Euro area. Utilizing Bayesian estimation of the Holston et al. (2017) model, we find robust synchronization between Germany's NRI and that of the entire Euro area, even amid level differences, supporting effective monetary policy coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Tino & Ochsner, Christian, 2024. "A note on the synchronisation of the natural rates of interest in Germany and the Euro Area," Working Papers 03/2024, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:300653
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    3. Tino Berger & Bernd Kempa, 2019. "Testing for time variation in the natural rate of interest," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 836-842, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unobserved component model; natural rate of interest; HLW model; Euro area; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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