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Bootstrap confidence sets under model misspecification

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  • Spokoiny, Vladimir
  • Zhilova, Mayya

Abstract

A multiplier bootstrap procedure for construction of likelihood-based confidence sets is considered for finite samples and a possible model misspecification. Theoretical results justify the bootstrap consistency for a small or moderate sample size and allow to control the impact of the parameter dimension p: the bootstrap approximation works if p3=n is small. The main result about bootstrap consistency continues to apply even if the underlying parametric model is misspecified under the so called Small Modeling Bias condition. In the case when the true model deviates significantly from the considered parametric family, the bootstrap procedure is still applicable but it becomes a bit conservative: the size of the constructed confidence sets is increased by the modeling bias. We illustrate the results with numerical examples for misspecified constant and logistic regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Spokoiny, Vladimir & Zhilova, Mayya, 2014. "Bootstrap confidence sets under model misspecification," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-067, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2014-067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2015. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/Nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1013-1079, May.
    2. Aerts, Marc & Claeskens, Gerda, 2001. "Bootstrap tests for misspecified models, with application to clustered binary data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 383-401, May.
    3. Lavergne, Pascal & Patilea, Valentin, 2013. "Smooth minimum distance estimation and testing with conditional estimating equations: Uniform in bandwidth theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 47-59.
    4. Kline, Patrick & Santos, Andres, 2012. "Higher order properties of the wild bootstrap under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 54-70.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2012. "Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors," Papers 1212.6906, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," CeMMAP working papers 38/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Ma, Shuangge & Kosorok, Michael R., 2005. "Robust semiparametric M-estimation and the weighted bootstrap," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 190-217, September.
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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Bootstrap Consistency for Quadratic Forms of Sample Averages with Increasing Dimension," Papers 1411.2701, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    3. Zhilova, Mayya, 2015. "Simultaneous likelihood-based bootstrap confidence sets for a large number of models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    likelihood-based bootstrap con dence set; misspecified model; finite sample size; multiplier bootstrap; weighted bootstrap; Gaussian approximation; Pinsker's inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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